Berlin
Like the CIA, many are expecting a preliminary decision on the Ukraine war in the spring. What Putin’s penchant for symbolic dates has to do with it.
“The leopards are coming.” Ukrainian media enthusiastically showed photos of a battle tank on Twitter “Leopard 2” in the cargo hold of a Canadian military aircraft. They are eagerly desired.
They are a blessing and a curse at the same time. A lot speaks for one Russian offensive just before the tanks arrive. As long as the ground is frozen, the timing would also be meteorologically advisable, as snowmelt and spring rains make the fields and dirt roads impassable.
Ukraine War: Offensive threatened before February 24th
Another reason is the preference of Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin for symbolic data be. As the February 24 anniversary of the invasion approaches, Ukraine braces itself for a full-scale attack. Read about it: Winter misery in the Ukraine war: who is affected more by the cold?
Ukraine war – background and explanations for the conflict
President Volodymyr Zelenskyj has already said one before several times “symbolic action” warned. There are numerous reports and references to this, he said in his speech on Sunday. Russia wants revenge for defeats. “We note that the pressure on various front areas and also in the information area has increased.”
Ukraine War: Militarily, the Leopard is not a game changer
“The key will be on the battlefield over the next six months,” CIA director William Burns said at a recent event at Georgetown University. The spring can the hour of truth because it will then be determined without a doubt whether the Western battle tanks will bring success. Also interesting: Ukraine war: Leo 1 tank is coming – what the oldie can do
A so-called game changer If the “Leos” aren’t, says Heinrich Brauss, a former general in the Bundeswehr. “From a purely military point of view: rather no,” he tells our editorial team. Politically and militarily, his judgment is completely different. “Because the joint decision of the Americans and so many Europeans is in itself a message to Putin: We support Ukraine in such a way that You can’t win.” Putin’s cost-benefit calculation should be influenced, explains Brauss, who was also commander of a tank brigade and served for NATO. Also interesting: Leopard: Why the tank costs several million euros
A battle tank promises rapid gains in terrain. speak for him Protectionthe firepowerthe speed. When in doubt, he will avoid obstacles. Ideally, he does not stop so as not to make an easy target. However, according to Brauss, Ukraine needs more than battle tanks against Russia, namely armored personnel carriers, artillery, anti-aircraft tanks, bridge-laying and armored recovery vehicles, and air defense. Also interesting: Ukraine War: Three armored personnel carriers against Putin’s forces
On the total package would it matter You can’t just deliver the leopard. You have to do the entire logistics – above all Ammunition, spare parts, repair – ready and secure. “You not only have to train the respective tank crews, but also all those who maintain and repair the device,” says Brauss.
Ukraine war: Putin wants Ukrainian army to bleed to death
If the tank is refueled, serviced, repaired, if the track flies off and has to be put on, “everything has to be done in Ukraine itself.” That’s why the US hesitated to introduce the main battle tank M1 Abrams to deliver: For them as for the Ukraine, their delivery means an enormous effort. You might also be interested in: Ukraine war: baptism of fire for Putin’s combat robot “Marker”?
Ukraine Crisis – The most important news about the war
There is no doubt that the soldiers of the Kiev supreme commander, Valeriy Saluschnyi, will find it tough. In the past few months, Russia has been training the personnel it mobilized in the fall. And now the Kremlin boss wants to know it again and at least gain ground. Brauss says: “Putin wants to let the Ukrainian army bleed to death.” also read: Putin: Is he really fielding half a million soldiers?
Ukraine War: Will the West Keep Arms Aid?
How long the conflict will last is the million dollar question. “That depends on Putin, on the Ukrainian army and on continued support from the West,” analyzes Brauss. He suspects, “Putin is probably good with one too “frozen conflict” life”.
What is meant is first gaining ground, bringing the entire Donbass under his control, then offering a ceasefire in order to attack Ukraine again after a while. Brauss is certain: “He will from his aggressive targets don’t let go He will look at how the West behaves. Does he have the strength to keep going, to continue delivering weapons, today the Leo, tomorrow maybe fighter jets? Read about it: Leopard Delivery: Why Every “Red Line” Gets Crossed
More articles from this category can be found here: Politics
