The Ukrainian armed forces are said to be preparing for a major counterstrike.Image: AP / Libkos
Analyse
For weeks, the rumor mill has been brewing about a major counter-offensive Ukraine. The topic is hotly debated, especially on social media. Videos and photos of countless soldiers marching, digging of trenches, shipments of weapons – all these recordings fuel the rumours. Their authenticity often cannot be independently verified.
According to media reports, it is no longer a question of whether the big counterattack will come, but when and where it will take place.
The calm before the storm: There are growing indications that Ukraine could soon launch a major counteroffensive.Bild: AP / Iryna Rubakova
Also conflict observer Nikita Gerasimov from Freie Universität Berlin is certain: “The Ukrainian spring offensive is coming. That applies to all sides of the Front largely as safe.” When asked by Watson, he said that expectations for the counter-offensive were extremely high, especially in Ukraine.
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Ukrainian media and politicians are preparing for a major offensive
According to Gerasimov, the Ukrainian population was so uncompromisingly attuned by the media and politicians to a successful counter-offensive that the government actually had no choice but to launch it.
According to him, even in the West, Ukraine’s counter-offensive this spring is widely viewed as a “must”. The conflict observer explains that Ukrainian representatives, including the head of the secret service Kyrylo Budanov, have repeatedly stated that an offensive against the West is de facto “owed”.
But why?
According to experts, Ukraine de facto owes the West an offensive
According to Gerasimov, arms deliveries have been so immense in recent times that a failure to launch an offensive could mean too much damage to confidence. He says:
“Ukrainian officials, for their part, unequivocally warned that the West could cut back on its arms aid if the offensive doesn’t come.”
Among other things, the USA is sending battle tanks to Ukraine.Bild: The Gazette / Christian Murcock
But also Russia is closely monitoring developments on Ukrainian soil.
Prigozhin warns of Ukrainian counter-offensive
According to Gerasimov, the Russians are also anticipating a counteroffensive. “They are preparing accordingly by building fortifications,” he explains. In addition, “Wagner” boss Yevgeny Prigozhin recently warned of a counter-offensive by the Ukrainian army. He also caused a stir when he pleaded for an end to the war in a blog entry.
Ukrainian media referred to the 61-year-old’s blog post, which said: “For the state power and for the Gesellschaft it is necessary today to put some fat dot after the military special operation.” sea”The Sun“Prigozhin apparently fears the counter-offensive.
The report states that Prigozhin warns that the counteroffensive could break through Russian lines. According to Prigozhin, Ukraine has built up a reserve of 200,000 men. According to The Sun, he adds:
“In this case, in the (Russian) army, which for years considered itself one of the best armies in the world, it can first spoil the mood, and then the situation will deteriorate.”
On the other hand, Prigozhin leads in his blog entry assumes that the more often the Zelenskyi government postpones the offensive, the Ukrainian troops will gradually weaken. He even ridicules Ukraine’s actions and writes: “As the saying goes, ‘a donkey that has been in the shade will not work in the sun’.”
Gerasimov points out that it is now rumored from all corners of the Russian media segment that a major, perhaps even decisive, offensive by Ukraine is imminent. But the question is when it will occur. According to the expert, there were contradictory statements on the Ukrainian side in this regard.
Russia is probably puzzling over when the major Ukrainian offensive will start.Image: AP / Libkos
The back-and-forth regarding the major offensive causes confusion
“Sometimes it was said that they weren’t ready for this and would only be able to do it in the summer. Only a few days later, it was said that the offensive would start ‘soon’,” explains Gerasimov. In Russia, this back-and-forth is seen as part of Ukraine’s (dis)information campaign to maximally conceal the true timing of the offensive.
Counter-offensive could start on “Victory Day”.
US media recently published the assessment that the offensive will start on April 30th. “You should always be careful with such day-specific assessments, but this date doesn’t seem that unlikely,” says the expert.
According to him, some war reporters estimate that the Ukrainian offensive would have to start by May 9th. “From my point of view, too, there is a lot to be said for it, above all the symbolic political aspect. On May 9, Russia celebrates ‘Victory Day’, one of the most important national holidays,” emphasizes Gerasimov.
Why is Russia celebrating “Victory Day”?
On May 9, Russians celebrate “Victory Day” over Nazi Germany. Traditionally, the memorial march “Immortal Regiment” takes place in Russia, where people across the country commemorate the soldiers who died in World War II.
For Kiev, it would be the absolute “symbolic political jackpot” to strike massively by May 9, says the expert. According to him, this was recently communicated unequivocally by Ukrainian representatives. Explosive: Vladimir Putin has canceled the Victory Day event in Moscow.
Vladimir Putin has canceled “Victory Day” on May 9th – does he expect a major offensive on that day?Bild: Pool Sputnik Kremlin / Gavriil Grigorov
According to Gerasimov, whether the major Ukrainian offensive will actually start that day depends on many – sometimes banal – factors, such as the Wetter. “Also whether the soil in the Donbass will be reasonably dry by then and passable for heavy equipment. At the moment, large areas are just mud and mud broth,” says the conflict observer. But the Ukrainian soldiers are apparently ready for the big counterattack.
Ukrainian fighters are confident of victory
Many Ukrainian soldiers are confident of victory on social media – they keep sending ambiguous messages to Russia, which could point to the upcoming counter-offensive. So does the soldier Sarah Ashton-Cirillo.
On Twitter she shares her everyday life from the Ukrainian trenches. The American has joined the Ukrainian armed forces as a military medic. Apparently she is sure that Ukraine will win. She recently tweeted: “Of course I’m smiling. Ukraine has already won.”
Shortly thereafter, she posts a photo of herself declaring war: “If we attack, the Russian Federation will fall.” She reports that after four days of intensive training she is now back in position – ready for the big attack?
While Ashton-Cirillo is optimistic, they are USA apparently doubts about the success of the major counter-offensive. The Pentagon data leak is supposed to show this. Loud “Washington Post” the US believes that Kiev will “miss far” from its targets.
Reason: critical weaknesses in air defense and significant deficiencies in supply and troop formation. The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is probably already working on the last point.
Zelenskyj is preparing new troops for front-line operations
“Together with all our defense and security forces, the border guards are fighting at the front, even in the most difficult areas,” says Zelenskyj in his evening video address.
It continues: “We are also preparing new units – border guard units – to join our active operations, to join the movement that we are gradually developing.”
