The Government of Gustavo Petro formally began this Monday, June 24 in Caracas a peace process with the dissidents of the extinct FARC, grouped in the Second Marquetalia, with the surprise presence of the former chief negotiator of the FARC, Iván Márquez, who failed to comply with the agreement signed in 2016 to hand over his weapons.
This national meeting is the third within the framework of the “Total Peace” policy, which seeks to establish simultaneous dialogues with various armed groups. At this meeting, Márquez expressed the willingness of the Second Marquetalia to contribute to the shared goal of achieving peace for Colombia.
Cuba, Norway and Venezuela are acting as guarantors of the process, which also includes talks with the ELN (National Liberation Army) and the dissident group known as the Estado Mayor Central (EMC). The agreement signed to formally launch the roundtable highlights that it seeks to implement democratic changes and reforms for the benefit of the population, prioritizing the affected territories.
Three Unknowns
To delve into the Petro government’s ongoing negotiations with the FARC dissidents. DIARIO LAS AMÉRICAS exclusively consulted two prominent political analysts: Political Science professor Olmer Muñoz, and political scientist Néstor Julián Restrepo.
Professor Muñoz raised three crucial questions regarding the current process. First, he stressed that it is taking place within the framework of “Total Peace,” a concept that he maintains is not yet fully defined.
He explained that if “Total Peace” includes both organized armed groups and criminal gangs, this could make negotiations more difficult by having to deal simultaneously with multiple armed groups and armed criminals.
Secondly, Muñoz highlighted that, if “Total Peace” represents the end of armed violence in Colombia, the FARC dissidents had a crucial opportunity in 2016. It is relevant to note that the agreement of that year established that those Those who participated in the negotiation and disarmament process would receive exclusive treatment in the special peace jurisdiction.
If they returned to arms, they would lose all legal benefits granted during those negotiations. Therefore, according to Muñoz, the current government should maintain the negotiations within the framework defined in 2016.
Thirdly, Muñoz mentioned the difficulties with the FARC dissidents and highlighted two main aspects: first, they are recovering territorial control in regions such as Cauca, Nariño and Valle del Cauca (located in the southwest of the country), and they have increased their armed presence in approximately 28 of the 32 departments of the nation, which affects the production of hydrocarbons and the illegal exploitation of minerals.
Second, they are at a critical moment in terms of strength due to measures taken by the national government to suspend military operations in areas where there was previously relative control by the State.
Lack of legitimacy
Regarding the role of Venezuela and Cuba in these negotiations, the professor mentioned that both countries are not within the framework of the inter-American human rights system, which he considers very serious. He stated that, although they act as mediators, the lack of democratic legitimacy of both can affect the international credibility of the negotiations.
“The Rule of Law and Social in Colombia is the one that must set the conditions of the negotiation and suspend any type of violent activity, kidnappings, drug trafficking, extortion, attacks on indigenous and Afro-descendant populations by these groups that are directly violating fundamental rights of the population,” he defined.
He stressed that drug trafficking continues to be a fuel for armed groups in Colombia and that its eradication is essential to achieve lasting peace in the country. He revealed that Colombia has returned to coca leaf production levels similar to those of 1998, and mentioned that President Gustavo Petro suspended the measurement carried out by the United Nations on illicit crops in the country.
He also believes that, in this negotiation process, it is unlikely that the FARC dissidents will agree to stop depending on drug trafficking as their main source of financing.
There is no trust
For his part, political scientist and analyst Néstor Julián Restrepo explained that Colombia has constantly faced internal conflicts and peace processes. This situation is not new, a characteristic of what is known as “Total Peace” is the lack of confidence on the part of citizens, who feel exhausted due to the succession of so many similar processes.
Restrepo said that the absence of the State in the territories is one of the causes of the continued appearance of armed groups in the country. He agreed with professor and analyst Olmer Muñoz that drug trafficking remains a persistent problem in Colombia.
He expressed that as long as this illicit activity continues to exist, along with the large drug trafficking market in the United States and Europe, Colombia will continue to be immersed in an armed conflict, this being the origin of the problem.
Restrepo emphasized the lack of confidence in the current peace process. He mentioned that the participation of the guerrilla Iván Márquez in multiple previous unfulfilled processes generates a lack of credibility and legitimacy in the current process, carried out in Venezuela.
He stressed that citizens distrust Iván Márquez because of his history: “He has left a stigma not only because of the peace process in Havana, but because of previous processes where he did not comply.”
Guarantee?
Regarding Cuba and Venezuela, mediating countries in this “Total Peace” process, Restrepo mentioned that historically they have been guarantees of the peace processes in Colombia. Venezuela, due to its geographical proximity, and Cuba, due to its ideological affinity, act as intermediaries for leftist guerrilla groups in Latin America.
Despite being considered totalitarian governments, Restrepo argued that pragmatically Colombia has always needed an intermediary, and in recent years that role has been played by Cuba and Venezuela. He highlighted that these countries will continue to participate in the peace negotiations due to their role as translators and facilitators in the process.
Restrepo said that as long as drug trafficking persists in Colombia and the State has no control over the territories, dissident groups, both paramilitary and guerrilla, will continue to emerge.
He expressed skepticism regarding negotiations in Venezuela due to internal conflicts between armed groups. In his opinion, it would be more beneficial to negotiate and obtain pardons or legalization of funds through the “Total Peace” process.
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Source: Interview with political analysts: Professor of Political Science Olmer Muñoz, and political scientist Néstor Julián Restrepo. Agencies: AFP, AP
