The inflationary projection of the consultancies accounts for a record rate for this month. Concern and confusion in the Government
By Claudio Zlotnik
17/05/2023 – 09,47hs
After the disclosure of the April Inflation Index, of 8.4%, the question was whether May could worsen the inflationary dynamics. The answer, having covered the first fortnight, is affirmative. The consultancies that usually monitor the evolution of prices suggest that the CPI for this month would exceed the record for April.
LCG, the consulting firm founded by Martin Lousteau, which surveys food prices in supermarkets, measured 8.9% in the last four weeks. It is well known: the inflationary process is usually worse outside the thick walls of large commercial chains.
Meats, dairy products -especially eggs- and vegetables They once again emerged as the most problematic items when talking about food inflation.
The consultancy Eco Go, directed by the economist Marina Dal Poggetto, it calculates that this month’s inflation will be around 8.8%, also above the figure for April. In addition to the jump in the food item, Eco Go reports the update registered in the rates of public services for a part of the population, at the beginning of the month.
Do the latest measures have an impact?
The latest government measures, known last weekend, do not directly attack the inflationary dynamics. Rather, the package tries to put a limit on exchange rate overheating, something that is not clear that it will succeed. He Dolar blue it ended yesterday at $488 and has already accumulated a rise of $14 in the first two trading days of the week.
With an exchange rate gap that threatens to widen again and inflation with the risk of spiralization, companies and also consumers try to cover themselves against possible disruptive scenarios. Each one in their own range of possibilities, but absolutely all operating on the defensive in case, indeed, what comes in economic terms is worse.
Uncontrolled inflation: the first half of May became the most dramatic of the year
In any case, the only news that brought some relief, no matter how small, were the latest purchases of dollars from the Banco Central. Although concise, in this dramatic context, it is better for the BCRA to buy foreign currency before continuing with sales.
The Central Bank has been buying dollars for eight consecutive rounds, although well below the expected performance for the “dollar soybeans 3”. In that period, he added purchases for just US$225 million.
In the Government there is confusion and concern. The rise in food has an unquestionable political and social effect. There are no pockets that can withstand this wave of increases, and the loss of purchasing power seems inevitable. There is no parity that manages to reach that inflationary rate.
