A sudden phenomenon would also make this process unique: the opposition duo represented by the political leader María Corina Machado and the presidential candidate for the Unitary Platform and diplomat Edmundo González.
“In the history of Venezuela, the significance of Machado has no comparison with Hugo Chávez, nor Rómulo Betancourt, nor Rafael Caldera,” says Asdrúbal Aguiar, Venezuelan jurist and author of the work Unconstitutional History of Venezuela (1999-2012).
And she describes what she considers an unprecedented conjugation: “a woman who with a maternal spirit welcomes a fractured nation and baits a diplomatic conciliator to serve as a bridge between a reality that became ominous in its outcome, and the other reality.” ”, which in his opinion is more of a reconstruction than a classic transition.
The transition, defined as an interval between the separation of a generally totalitarian regime to another political regime, has played a relevant role in the world and specifically in the region. If it is a transition to democracy, it implies the reform or dismantling of a non-democratic regime to proceed with the installation of democratic rules, which leads to civil liberties and political rights, with free and verifiable elections.
Transition in Venezuela, the moment
In Venezuela there have been six, from 1935 to 2019, but it has been invoked many more times in recent history as a way to achieve political change and put an end to the crisis that has lasted 11 years and continues.
In 25 years, since Hugo Chávez came to power to date, the Venezuelan opposition has made multiple attempts, all of them unsuccessful, to get closer to the beginning of a transition, according to political scientist John Magdaleno, a specialist on the subject. But the situation is different at this moment.
“Venezuelan society is in the presence, at this precise moment, of the best opportunity that has been presented in 25 years to try to achieve the transition,” says Magdaleno, although he warns that it is difficult to anticipate what will happen between now and the presidential election and the result, due to the complex menu of manipulations to which the authoritarian regimes of the 21st century appeal.
And he adds: “A picture of “systemic difficulties” has already been created for the Venezuelan autocracy that has increased the costs of its permanence. It remains to be seen whether exit costs are effectively reduced to certain power factors.”
On April 24, candidate González once again raised the process of political change and expressed his commitment to the reconstruction of the country. And in one of his first interviews he gave it a date: “On July 28, a transition period opens in Venezuela.”
Crucial tasks
Magdaleno explains the factors that would make the transition possible today.
“A truly massive and disciplined non-violent mobilization, demanding a broad spectrum of rights and social demands; and also massive and organized electoral participation, unity to the strong will, on the part of citizens, to defend their vote, could contribute to political change in the current Venezuelan context,” he says.
This suggests, he specifies, that the Venezuelan opposition “is forced” to seek greater organization, articulation and strategic coordination between the most diverse social and political sectors.
“They are crucial tasks in which steps are certainly being taken, but whose achievement requires redoubling efforts because the frustration, unrest and popular irritation are enormous and require effective and careful channeling.” On the other hand, he affirms that external pressure could also contribute, “especially if international actors with greater capacity for influence, on a global and regional scale, pressure more selectively and offer guarantees and incentives to certain power factors of the Venezuelan autocracy. ”.
“Understanding this last aspect is crucial if you want to foster the favorable context for a political transition. There can be no justice without the restitution of the rule of law. And the rule of law cannot exist if a transition to democracy does not begin with political liberalization. It is clear, therefore, what the order of priorities is,” he points out.
Republic pulverized
Magdaleno recalls that many Venezuelans who want political change complain about the little or no effectiveness of the negotiations that regime and opposition actors have been holding for at least nine years, without concrete results.
However, he specifies that a negotiation of this type can only work in a “limit situation” when pressure is placed on the decision-makers of the political regime and certain guarantees and incentives are offered to make way for change.
From his point of view, Aguiar considers that talking about transition is an “aporia.” Part of his experience in Chile as ambassador of Venezuela and exceptional witness in the transition from dictatorship to democracy. “In Venezuela, the republic ceased to exist.”
“The country has a pulverized republic. The 1999 constitutional system in force dematerialized to the point that we had two rulers in the country, two parliaments, two supreme authorities. “That is the most obvious revelation of a republic that ceased to exist.”
He adds that the ties of affection are broken not only in the political sphere but also in the family, with the heartbreaks of the emigration of 8 million Venezuelans who fled the country and left their families.
After analyzing Venezuela’s “transition effort” in 2019, which was called the regime for the democratic transition in Venezuela and which came to a bad end, it indicates that currently the situation is different.
“Each territorial reality in Venezuela is full of actors that did not exist before. It has an Iranian, Chinese, Turkish, Russian and Cuban presence, it has a presence of the ELN and FARC. And the big question comes: Can the transition be asked for an act of reunion of the nation?”
Unprecedented process in history
Magdaleno, who has spent the last 10 years deciphering the keys to a transition to democracy in Venezuela and other countries, believes that a process of political change is, to a certain extent, unique and unprecedented, due to the characteristics of any society.
However, it indicates that it is a demanding and complex task to carry out. “The opposition must still face new obstacles and difficulties until the presidential election and after it. But the opportunity is there, right under our noses,” he says. It is based on recent opinion studies.
“A demand for political change that represents 85% of the population, a willingness to go to vote that already ranges between 70% and 75% of the electorate and a tremendously favorable gap, in voting intention, for González Urrutia’s electoral option “These are good signs.”
To this he adds “the considered and serene disposition” of the candidate González Urrutia, and the wisdom in insisting on the Venezuela of the reunion.”
Aguiar, for his part, highlights Machado’s role in this virtual reunion, an essential element of the transition in Venezuela.
“When nations are pulverized, as happens in a country with a war or in the face of any adversity, one turns to the mother, and it is the phenomenon that I capture in this strange atypical reality of the Machado phenomenon, because it approaches people not with ideological nor republican discourse, but with the discourse of the family that was fractured, that of the pulverized nation. That woman appears and the country goes in search of protection.”
Experts agree that given the climate of hatred and adversity in the current situation, the reunion of political and social bases must be prioritized to begin a transition process in the country. More than that of a part of the political leadership.
Democratization needs to be stimulated from below, says Magdaleno.
“The negotiation will work when strategic dilemmas are formulated for the Venezuelan autocracy that lead the power factors to a limit situation. As far as I know, academic research does not propose going meekly to “beg” for an agreement. What she portrays in multiple cases is the picture of pressures, on the one hand, and incentives, on the other, that combine to facilitate the transition in the midst of an extreme situation.”
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Source: Interviews with Asdrúbal Aguiar, jurist; and John Magdaleno, Transition expert
