On the Russian front in eastern Ukraine, between Kramatorsk and Bakhmout, the mercury has not risen above zero for several weeks. The soldiers on both sides are fighting step by step for the symbolic control of localities reduced to a heap of ruins. The army now face each other on an almost frozen front line of more than 1,000 kilometers. A war of attrition in which offensives and counter-offensives barely move positions, a war of attrition.
Everything indicates that the conflict will be long. Because if we can draw four main scenarios of the evolution of the conflict, each one comes up against obstacles that are insurmountable to date.
1. Ukraine wins the war
Since the September counter-offensive which allowed Ukraine to regain control of 2,500 km2 of its territory, the scenario of a Ukrainian victory is one of the scenarios seriously considered. ” However, underlines Thibault Fouillet, of the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS), victory should not be confused with the achievement of war aims. » The country has won many military successes in recent months. Some with an important tactical dimension. “But can he achieve the war aims he has set himself?, asks the military expert, that is to say recovering its territorial integrity and obtaining guarantees of lasting security? » Ukraine wants full reconquest, including Crimea, and an end
This article is for subscribers only. To read more, take advantage of our non-binding offers!
OR
Google Exclusive: 6.99€/month
By choosing this promotional subscription path, you accept the deposit of an analysis cookie by Google.
