Until a few months ago, those who predicted that the war in Ukraine would be long were thinking of the summer of 2023, after the spring offensives of both sides. Today, we are starting to think in years, with at least one deadline in mind for Vladimir Putin: the American presidential election of November 2024.
If he is lucid, the Russian president will have understood that his army is not able to break the resistance of a Ukrainian army better equipped and more agile than his. The last few months have amply proved this, particularly in Bakhmout, the “Ukrainian Verdun”, where Russian advances come at the highest price. The Ukrainian general staff has chosen to hold on as long as one equation is respected: an unfavorable balance of power, but a favorable loss ratio. This is always the case: the Russian army, with its auxiliaries of Wagner who serve as cannon fodder, loses up to
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