“The paradox of the war in Ukraine is that the West is both more united and less influential in the world than ever before,” commented Mark Leonard, co-author and ECFR Director, on the findings of the report, titled “The West United, by Separated from the Rest of the World: International Opinion after a Year of War in Ukraine”.
Together with Ivan Krastev from the Center for Liberal Strategies and Timothy Garton Ash, who teaches at the University of Oxford and Stanford University, he analyzed data from China, India, Turkey, Russia, the USA and ten European countries. Specifically, these are Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain and the non-EU country Great Britain. The data was collected by the institutes Datapraxis, YouGov, Gallup and Norstat.
Notice
In India, China and Russia, only residents of urban areas were surveyed; unlike those of the other countries, the data are not representative of the national population. In the case of Russia and China, it should be noted that respondents may feel that their freedom of expression is being restricted.
China, Russia: Doubts about Western motives
Attitudes to questions such as: How united is the West? Why are the US and Europe behind Ukraine? Is Russia enemy or ally? Where is real democracy most likely to be lived? And how will the world order develop in the next ten years?
According to the authors, the surveys of 19,765 people showed that the West is perceived as united. But mistrust is high: the populations of China and Russia often see the support for Ukraine as an attempt to defend Western dominance. In contrast, in the EU countries examined, defending one’s own security is the most common motive, while in the USA it is the defense of Ukrainian democracy.
In the West, the view that Ukraine must win back all of its territory, even if this prolongs the war, also dominates: 38 percent in the selected EU states agree with the answer, but there are also 30 percent who want an immediate demand the end of the war and would accept losses of territory in return. A significant proportion of respondents are undecided on the issue, showing just how volatile sentiment is at the moment.
EU countries: Gros for import ban on Russian energy
More determination can be heard in terms of Russia sanctions: data from early 2023 shows that 55 percent of the population in the nine EU countries surveyed are in favor of avoiding the import of Russian energy – even if this causes temporary supply problems comes. On the other hand, almost every fourth person is of the opinion that an undisturbed energy supply should be ensured.
Reckoning with the West
Many respondents in China, India, Russia and Turkey want the war to end quickly, regardless of the consequences: In India, more than half of the people are in favor of an immediate end to the fighting, in Turkey the figure is almost half. 44 percent are in Russia, 42 in China.
Also noteworthy is the negative image that the West now has in those countries: Western democracy is given bad marks. According to those surveyed in China and India, “real democracy” is most likely to be lived in their own home country.
Russia: friend or foe?
There are also clear fault lines between the West and other global powers on the question of Russia’s relationship with its own country. In all western countries surveyed, Russia is perceived by an overwhelming majority as an “opponent” or “competitor”.
In contrast, Russia is seen as an “ally” or “partner” by nearly 79 percent of respondents in China and India, and 69 percent of respondents in Turkey. About three quarters of those surveyed from those three countries also stated that Russia is now stronger or just as strong after a year of war as it was when it broke out. In Great Britain, the USA and the nine EU countries, on the other hand, Russia is seen as weakened.
fragmentation of power?
The authors see the assessments of the future world order as one of the “most striking” findings. Many – both in the West and in China and Co. – expect that the US-led liberal order will lose its global dominance within the next decade. In the USA (nine percent), Russia (seven percent) and China (six percent) only a few respondents still believe in US dominance.
In Europe and the US, many expect a bipolar world with two blocs led by the US and China respectively. In contrast, about one in three people in Russia and China expect power to be more evenly distributed among several countries.
The study acknowledges that most Europeans and Americans live in a “pre-Cold War world characterized by the confrontation of democracy and authoritarianism,” Krastev also commented on the report. “But many people outside the West live in a post-colonial world that is based on the concept of national sovereignty,” says Krastev. In the ZIB2 interview, the renowned Eastern Europe expert said with regard to the Ukraine war that “more escalation than de-escalation” will be seen before the presidential elections in Ukraine and Russia.
Political scientist Krastev on the Ukraine war
US President Joe Biden made a surprise visit to Ukraine. The Bulgarian political scientist Ivan Krastev is a guest at ZIB2.
Authors plead for international cooperation
The transatlantic West has “completely failed” to convince powers like China, India and Turkey, Ash said. “The lesson for Europe and the West is clear: we urgently need a new narrative that also speaks to countries like India, the world’s largest democracy,” he also said.
In fact, there is clear evidence that countries like Turkey and India have become stronger since the outbreak of the war: this can be seen in the mediating role that Turkey played in the Black Sea grain agreement, for example. It can also be seen in India, which on the one hand is strengthening economic relations with Russia and on the other is engaged in a security dialogue with the USA, Australia and Japan.
According to the authors, the West would do well to treat India, Turkey, Brazil and other emerging powers as “new sovereign actors in world history”. Although they do not have a uniform ideology and represent opposing positions on many issues, their populations are willing to work together across ideological and political borders.
