The leaked documents dealing with the situation in Ukraine are particularly explosive. Individual sheets provide information about the losses on the Russian and Ukrainian side and thus fuel speculation about the course of the war. It is still unclear whether all documents are actually genuine or have been edited.
The Pentagon leaks are always a heavy blow for the US government and its secret services. With the 21-year-old national guard Jack T. there is now a suspect arrested by the Federal Police FBI. He is said to have published the secret papers for reasons that are still unclear.
But what is actually in the leaked documents? An overview:
Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses are weakening
So far, Ukraine has been able to maintain a strong air defense system that protects it relatively reliably from heavy Russian attacks. But how long? US military officials have painted a pessimistic picture, fearing that Ukraine’s air defenses could soon collapse.
Replenishment arrives only sparsely. It is predicted that the missiles for the S-300 air defense system could run out as early as May 2 – with fatal consequences for the capital Kiev as well.
Problems with delivered US weapons
As has been leaked, Ukraine apparently has massive problems with the American JDAM-ER bombs. These GPS-guided bombs typically have a range of up to 72 kilometers and can autonomously hit their target within a few meters. However, their hit rate is surprisingly low since they are vulnerable to Russian jammers.
According to the US documents, Ukrainian forces were recommended to first attack Russian forces’ jammers before dropping JDAM-ER bombs. Despite these measures, at least four of the nine bombs dropped missed their target because of the jammers. This is notable as JDAM-ER bombs are usually known for their accuracy and each of these smart bombs costs around $25,000.
Serbia on the side of Ukraine
Surprisingly, Serbia, a historic Moscow ally, reportedly agreed to supply arms to Kiev. However, it is not clear if this actually happened as Belgrade has denied these reports. Still, the possibility remains that the country plays an important role in supporting Ukraine.
In return, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates are said to have considered supplying arms to Moscow. These potential supplies could further increase the Russian military presence in the region and complicate efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine.
Preparation of the counter-offensive
Ukrainian Chief of General Staff Valeriy Zalushnyi has stated that 300 main battle tanks, 600-700 infantry fighting vehicles and 500 artillery systems are needed to retake the occupied territories. But the documents show that the West has provided only limited support in equipping the Ukrainian army.
According to the leaks, twelve mechanized brigades can now be equipped, nine of them with US material. However, there are no details on when and where the offensive will take place. It is only pointed out that the mud period will make driving with heavy battle tanks impossible.
US secret services have insight into power struggles in the Kremlin
The Pentagon leaks make it clear that the US is deeply entrenched in the Russian security apparatus and has access to details about Russian military plans and infighting within the Kremlin.
The alleged accusation by the Russian secret service FSB against the military of concealing the true number of deaths in Ukraine is particularly explosive. This information could help undermine Russian support for the separatists in Ukraine and influence Russian public opinion. It remains unclear how US intelligence gained access to this information.
Putin has cancer
The leaked documents show that Russian Chief of Staff Gerasimov apparently intended to end the war against Ukraine. To this end, he and the Secretary of the National Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, planned to sabotage the war and move troops.
Gerasimov is said to have searched for a suitable time and aimed at March 5, because that was the date when Putin would supposedly start another chemotherapy and would then no longer be able to influence the conduct of the war. However, it is unclear whether the information from the US Secret Service is correct. Speculations about Putin’s health persist, although there has never been any official confirmation.
NATO special forces on Ukrainian soil
According to a document, five NATO countries are said to have sent special forces to Ukraine. The United Kingdom is therefore present with 50 NATO special forces in Ukraine, followed by 17 soldiers from Latvia, 15 from France and 14 from the USA. The Netherlands is represented by one person. In addition, 29 Pentagon officials and 71 US State Department officials are in Ukraine, the document shows.
Number of casualties from Russia and Ukraine
According to the information from the leaked documents, the United States assumes that Russia has so far suffered 189,500 to 223,000 dead or wounded in the conflict in Ukraine, 43,000 of them in direct combat operations. On the Ukrainian side there are said to be 124,500 to 131,000 dead or wounded, 17,500 of them in direct combat operations.
China ready for arms deliveries
According to the leaks, China is said to have agreed to supply deadly weapons in talks with Russia. However, China wants to keep this secret and the deliveries should take place under the radar. However, further information on the weapons and the exact circumstances of the deliveries are not known.
spying on partners
There is evidence that US intelligence services are spying not only on geopolitical opponents but also on allies. The leaked documents show that there is disagreement within the South Korean government over arms sales to Ukraine and that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and UN chief Antonio Guterres are being spied on.
In addition, parts of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad have apparently actively tried to support the protests against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s judicial reforms. This suspicion reinforces the accusation that close partner countries are also being scouted out by the USA, which is causing some unrest.
