A higher diesel price than gasoline, a reality since the start of the war in Ukraine and which should continue in 2023 with the European embargo on refined products from Russia from February.
While the fuel discounts from the State and TotalEnergies end this December 31 at midnight, how will prices at the pump evolve in 2023?
Hard to say given the international context and a price per barrel of crude oil, currently at relatively low levels, which could well rise, especially with the expected recovery in economic activity in China. Conversely, an economic slowdown could lower the price of black gold.
Diesel more expensive than gasoline since March 2022
Another question: how long will we still find diesel more expensive than gasoline in stations? An abnormal situation, to which we finally got used to since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.
As can be seen in the graph below, since the beginning of March 2022, diesel has indeed been priced higher than gasoline, with the exception of a brief period from the end of May to the beginning of June.
“I don’t think that diesel will go back under gasoline in the short term. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the markets have been anticipating that we will run out of this fuel and therefore the price is increasing”, summarizes Francis Pousse, president of the service station and new energies branch of the trade association Mobilians.
However, this remains an abnormal situation: historically, diesel, which remains the most consumed fuel in France, benefits in particular from more advantageous taxation. The taxes (TVE, TICPE and VAT on the TICPE) indeed represent almost 60% of the price of a liter of unleaded 95, against 45% for diesel.
Russian diesel embargo in February
A political decision by Europe could also help keep diesel at a higher price than gasoline. After the EU embargo on Russian oil since the beginning of December, imports of Russian diesel will be blocked from February 5, 2023.
Enough to raise the risk of a “mini oil shock”, explained to us in October Patrice Geoffron, director of the Center for Geopolitics of Energy and Raw Materials (CGEMP), who anticipated a diesel fuel above 2 euros per litre, even at 2.50 euros per litre, with the end of discounts and a high oil price.
Long-awaited, the ban on importing Russian diesel, which in 2021 represented no less than 30% of French consumption, was however anticipated by distributors, which excludes any risk of disruptions in supply.
“European states did not wait until the end of January to find other suppliers”, emphasizes Francis Pousse.
A diesel fuel coming for example from the Gulf countries, “with higher transport costs, which will also contribute to raising its price at the pump”.
