Why Mohamed VI wants to get closer to Algeria now
mohamed VI has taken advantage, for the third consecutive year, of its traditional speech from the throne to advocate for a normalization of relations with Algeria. He inaugurated the trilogy in July 2021, three weeks before the break in diplomatic relations, accelerated, among other reasons, by a visit to Rabat of Yair Lapidat the time Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs, who took advantage of his presence to certify the total alignment of the Jewish State with the positions of Morocco in the conflict of Occidental Saharadefinitively embodied in the letter sent on July 17 by Benjamin Netanyahu to Mohamed VI.

In those moments at the beginning of the decade, the Alaouite Kingdom held a comfortable position thanks not only to its rapprochement with Israel -the reciprocal opening of embassies took place at the end of 2020 and was celebrated with a juicy arms contract-, but also due to the strengthening of its ties with USA that, by the work and grace of donald trumpalso recognized Moroccan sovereignty over the Occidental Sahara, and with consequences of greater depth than the Israeli gesture. It only remained, to complete the circle, that Spain did the same: Pedro Sanchez satisfied the Moroccan claim in the spring of 2022.

The exceptional diplomatic streak of Rabat could not go unanswered by Algiers. Low the baton of Abdelmadjid Tebboune – that has opted for a strong power after the anxiety of the last years of Abdelaziz Bouteflika–, the other great power of the Maghreb has counteracted Morocco in the last three years. Not without reaching a certain dose of effectiveness.

From the outset, he has consolidated his old alliance with russiastarted at the time of the Soviet Union and that he solemnized with a state visit a month and a half ago, and has undertaken trips to countries clearly at odds with the West democratic, like China and Türkiyein addition to scrolling to Qatarrival of the rest of the monarchies of the Persian Gulffirm allies of USA, Israel and Morocco. At each stage it signed strategic and economic cooperation agreements.

But this radicalization of positions on the strictly diplomatic level has been accompanied by very subtle movements when it has been attempted to make use of the energy weapon: without going any further, a stick has been for Spain –for his turn in the matter of Occidental Sahara– and a carrot has been taken away Italy of Giorgia Melonithe European country that has benefited most recently from Algerian generosity.

As I wrote last week Benoit Delmasgreat connoisseur of Maghrebin Le Point“while the realpolitik has once again become a necessity for countries deprived of raw materials and dependent on the good will of one or another supplier, to algiers there is a desire to be at the forefront of the cold war that is being waged, to be one of its capitals, in an advanced position on the European continent.

The results are starting to come. Despite the structural economic difficulties of its economy, Algeria can boast of a healthy trade balance, with a surplus of 3.5 billion dollars between January and April 2023, representing the hydrocarbons 93% of exports.

In Rabat are aware both of these figures and of the recovery of lost diplomatic ground carried out by algiers. At the military level, various intelligence agencies detected massive movements of the Army Algerian at the beginning of June on the border with Morocco. Neither Rabat neither algiers they want open conflict. But just in case Tebboune exhibit muscle. He King of Morocco bet now for appeasement.

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