According to polls, the scion of the most historic Democratic dynasty in the United States, known by the acronym RFK Jr, harms Biden more than the Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Democrats have learned to fear independents after George W. Bush defeated Al Gore in 2000 and Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016.
“Hyperpolarization is why a third-party candidate with a household name is a threat right now,” says Donald Nieman, a political scientist at Binghamton University in upstate New York.
“There are only six or seven states” that can really swing for one party or the other in November, and victory in some cases may depend on as few as 10,000 or 20,000 votes.
“So anything that turns off a group of usually reliable voters could be a deal breaker,” he says.
Kennedy’s popularity, around 10% in the polls, complicates the strategy of the Biden campaign, which seeks to turn the November vote into an election between him and Trump. Other polls place Kennedy at 14% acceptance.
Kennedy, an environmental lawyer, is known for his opposition to vaccines.
The son of former Democratic Attorney General “Bobby” Kennedy (assassinated in 1968) claims to have gathered enough support to be on the ballots in six states in November.
Their goal is to obtain one million signatures to be able to appear in the 50 states of the country.
Democrats on the offensive against Kennedy
“Kennedy represents a real threat to Biden’s campaign in key swing states,” says Charlie Kolean, chief strategist at the conservative political consultancy RED PAC.
“He is achieving exceptional results among independents and the younger generation, groups that have traditionally voted for Biden,” he explains.
Democrats have therefore gone on the offensive, with mobile billboards near places where RFK Jr holds rallies and legal action to keep him off the ballot.
But it’s unclear whether it will hurt them more than Trump.
In 1992, businessman Ross Perot obtained 19% of the vote, which possibly cost Republican George Bush Sr. his re-election against Bill Clinton.
Kennedy’s views on vaccines and his opposition to aid to Ukraine made him a favorite of the Trumpist “Make America Great Again” movement, known by its acronym: MAGA.
But Trump has dismissed the idea that Kennedy could be another Perot.
“He’s corrupt Joe Biden’s political opponent, not mine. I love that he’s running,” Trump recently posted on his social media app.
“The gigantic mistake”
Kennedy began his candidacy to the White House as a Democrat, but claims that he abandoned the primary campaign under pressure from Joe Biden’s allies.
ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR AP Wilfredo Lee.jpg
AP /Wilfred Lee
Keith Nahigian, an advisor to George Bush Sr. during the campaign in which he was defeated by Clinton in 1992, believes that Biden made a “giant mistake” by alienating Kennedy, instead of defeating him at the polls in the primaries.
“I think they could lose the presidency because they didn’t think through the strategy at the beginning of this race,” he declared.
However, Nahigian, a veteran of six presidential campaigns, warns of the danger of seeing 2024 as another 1992, because Perot, a billionaire, was able to buy publicity that Kennedy cannot afford.
To remedy this, Kennedy chose as his running mate Nicole Shanahan, a former Democratic donor from California with many means.
Nahigian described Shanahan, a lawyer and philanthropist, as “very far to the left” and unlikely to attract votes from Trump supporters.
But he warned Republicans and Democrats alike not to get complacent.
“Independent candidates have a huge impact in an election and it doesn’t matter if you’re a sitting president, if you’re a former president – you have to take it seriously,” Nahigian said.
Source: With information from AFP
