International survey after international survey, commentators are often struck by the pessimism of the French. Thus, in 2012, during a vast Gallup study of 51 nations, our country came first in the global gloom. Nigeria or Iraq, countries threatened with famine and civil war, displayed more dazzling optimism than in France. A new survey, published a few days ago by Ipsos, confirms these results. While the world is generally optimistic and the average of the countries surveyed declares at 65% that the year 2023 will be better than the year 2022, the French arrive at the bottom of the pack by estimating the chances that it will be at 44% . As an indication, Brazil or Mexico, which probably have more reason to worry about their future, show a good 85% optimism.
Yet when asked about specific risks, the French seem more reasonable than many other peoples. For example, only 41% of us believe that nuclear weapons will be used in a conflict somewhere in the world in 2023, while more than 60% of Indonesians, Peruvians or Thais believe this. This is possible, of course – and one thinks with fear of the possible consequences of the war in Ukraine – but, on the scale of human history, it is all the same improbable. Similarly, the French are in the minority to imagine that hackers could cause a computer apocalypse, while the Indonesians are 65% to imagine it. More comically, our fellow citizens estimate that it is 18% possible for an asteroid to strike the Earth, when they are 47% in India or Indonesia. For goodness sake, these same Indians believe that extraterrestrials will land on our planet this year in 43% of cases, while only 12% of refractory Gauls consider this possibility. The fears of our compatriots are directed towards more rational objects a priori. Thus, we are among those who are most concerned about climate risks (74%, against a global average of 65%), and not very many of us believe that a dazzling technological innovation can stop global warming in 2023. .
So, how to understand this French pessimism? The perception of inflation is a good example: 80% of us believe (above the world average) that it will be higher in our country in 2023 than in 2022. However, France is doing well rather better than many of its neighbors in this area, isn’t this fear therefore paradoxical? Is it unreasonable to believe that we will do less well in the future than what we have excellently succeeded in the present? Not necessarily if you take into account a phenomenon known as “regression to the mean”. Indeed, we observe that a singularly high or low value, in all areas, is statistically followed by a value approaching the average. It is a reality that the proverbial wisdom translates into expressions like “when you’ve hit rock bottom, you can only go up”. Therefore, it is perhaps understandable that one imagines a better future in countries where the present situation is particularly difficult; conversely, those among the peoples who are aware of living in a privileged world are afraid of losing.
This seems to me to characterize the French evil, more than anything else: the fear of being downgraded. Few of our fellow citizens, if given the choice, would prefer to live in a country other than France, so that this endemic pessimism is not decorrelated from our grumpy chauvinism. If we fear the future more than others, it may be because we have obscurely integrated the fact that we have more to lose than anyone else: access to healthcare or education, diversity of landscapes or gastronomy , richness of culture and heritage… However, although the power of France in the world remains notable, it has been declining in the world hierarchy for several decades. It seems to me that our fellow citizens have an unhappy awareness of this and give the impression that they permanently foresee an approaching fall. They look at the abyss rather than the sky. The “French evil” may lie there: this rational pessimism is only possible because we have lost faith in our collective narrative.
