According to data released by Counterpoint Research, in the fourth quarter of 2022, global PC shipments fell 27.8% year-on-year to 65.2 million units, a record low. Inventory at several OEMs and ODMs may peak in the third quarter of 2022, however, the end-of-year shopping season is also unable to drive growth in PC shipments in the fourth quarter. The total PC shipments in 2022 will be 286 million units, which further confirms the lackluster demand in the global PC market, with shipments declining year-on-year for four consecutive quarters. Counterpoint does not expect a sharp rebound in the first half of 2023.
In 2022, macroeconomic headwinds, rising inflationary pressures, and a sluggish demand in the PC market will all affect the global PC market, with shipments falling by 15% year-on-year. Consumers buying new PCs, on the other hand, still have a penchant for the latest models, while businesses keep a close eye on their budgets. In addition, due to the lack of functional updates and insufficient discounts, market demand has not been boosted in 2022. At the same time, since the first half of 2022, OEMs have been trying their best to digest the backlog of inventory.
Year-on-year decline in Q4 shipments in 2022 hits a record low
- Lenovo (Lenovo) will continue to lead the market in the fourth quarter of 2022, but its market share will remain at 23.7%. Due to the sluggish holiday season, a mild inventory adjustment dragged down the company’s performance, and its shipments fell by 17% year-on-year in 2022, with a market share of 23.7%. It is expected that by 2023, Lenovo’s shipment decline will return to normal levels as the demand in the Chinese market picks up.
- HP (Hewlett-Packard) is firmly in second place in the fourth quarter of 2022, with a market share of 20.3%. Its shipments in the quarter fell 29% year-on-year, but thanks to improved North American shipments and a low base in the third quarter, HP was the only major PCOEM player to increase its shipments sequentially in the fourth quarter. Due to weak global consumer demand, HP’s shipments will drop the most in 2022, and its market share in that year will eventually be less than 20%. However, HP’s market share is expected to rebound strongly in 2023.
- Dell’s market share of 16.7 percent fell to its lowest point in the past seven quarters, largely due to slowing business demand. As the economic situation remains weak, the commercial machine market is not expected to pick up quickly in 2023, and this market segment is crucial for Dell to narrow the market share gap with HP. As a result, Dell’s market share (2022: 17.4%) and shipment performance in 2023 may come under pressure.
- Apple’s shipments in the fourth quarter of 2022 fell slightly by 3% year-on-year, ending the year with flat shipments. At the cost of abandoning x86 architecture manufacturers, Apple has successively grabbed market share, and recorded double-digit and 9.4% market shares in the second half of 2022 and the whole year. With the Arm-based M-series, Apple has weathered the recessionary cycle of consumer and commercial devices in 2022.
Global PC shipments by vendor, Q4 2022
Windows on Arm: Focus in 2023
Despite multiple resistances in the near future, thanks to the continuous changes in the working environment and people’s lifestyles, and consumers and businesses will resume long-standing purchases after the first half of 2023, Counterpoint predicts that global PC shipments will continue to grow in the future. It is expected to exceed the pre-epidemic level in a few years. Consumer demand is likely to gradually rebound in the second half of 2023, and then corporate purchases will also slowly pick up. Weak demand in the first half of the year will seriously affect global PC shipments. Therefore, it may be difficult to see growth in shipments for the full year of 2023.
The success of Apple’s M-series chips has inspired Qualcomm to try, and the company may launch an Oryon CPU based on the ARM architecture in 2023 to warm up for Windows-on-Arm. The agency expects that year-on-year shipments of ARM-based PCs will record mid-single-digit growth in 2023, compared with a high-single-digit decline in global PC market shipments.
