After the 20th party congress in October, Xi Jinping has more control over the ruling Communist Party and thus over China than any of his predecessors since Mao Zedong. He can continue his state-centric approach to business and his nationalist foreign policy without much internal resistance. He has reached the peak of his power and is now “Maximum Xi”.
Ian Bremer is a foreign policy expert, founder and president of the consulting firm Eurasia Group and initiator of the Global Political Risk Index on Wall Street. His book The Power of Crisis was published shortly before the start of the Ukraine War.
Xi’s ability to make arbitrary decisions that affect the lives of billions of people is unrivalled. And since China is several times more important for global economic stability and the geopolitical balance of power today than it was in Mao’s time, Xi’s power is becoming a global problem.
Difficult internal and external decisions
Just think of some of his recent decisions. Its refusal to import foreign-made mRNA vaccines has left China’s 1.4 billion people much more vulnerable to Covid-19.
So far, there are officially far fewer deaths than in the United States and Europe. But it is to be feared that this remarkable (albeit economically and socially dearly bought) success will not last. China has failed to adequately vaccinate its citizens, even with Chinese-made vaccines. Millions of people are at risk of serious illness or death.
Xi’s quest for control has also wreaked significant damage in other areas. Its covert crackdown on private technology companies, likely based on fears that those firms would have too much influence over information flows, has reduced China’s ability to develop breakthrough digital technologies. And undermining international investor confidence that China remains a safe place to invest. In doing so, Xi has drained $1 trillion of market capital from one of the most efficient parts of China’s private sector.
Xi’s ability to make arbitrary decisions that impact the lives of billions of people is unrivaled.
Ian Bremmer, President of consultancy Eurasia Group
On foreign policy, Xi proclaimed “unlimited” friendship with Russia three weeks before invading Ukraine. And so increasing concerns in America and Europe that he shares Putin’s hunger to transform the international system.
In all three cases, Xi’s authoritarian personality, drive for tight control, and aggressive foreign policy have eclipsed any wise advice he may have received from the state bureaucracy. That came before Xi crowned himself emperor in November, staffed the Politburo Standing Committee with trusted loyalists, and jettisoned the post-Mao consensus of rule through committees in China.
A single, almighty leader
Now Chinese politics are directly controlled by a single, all-powerful leader. There is even less transparency in the political process, less reliable information reaching the top and influencing their decisions, and less room to admit mistakes, change course or compromise.
The problems of Xi’s maximum power will only increase in 2023. First, the surprise decision to end the zero-Covid strategy in one fell swoop and without careful preparation could kill a million or more Chinese. The short-term change of course to allow the virus to spread unchecked, despite dangerously low vaccination rates among the elderly, was decided without warning to citizens and local governments.
Xi’s covert crackdown on private tech companies has reduced China’s ability to develop breakthrough digital technologies.
Ian Bremmer, President of consultancy Eurasia Group
Deadly chaos looms. Xi will try to hide it from the outside world and from his own people. Therefore, if a dangerous new Covid variant emerges, it is likely to spread rapidly throughout China and across borders under “Maximum Xi”.
China’s ability to identify a new variant is being hampered by Xi’s order to drastically and suddenly reduce testing. In addition, China’s hospitals are not prepared for the waves of seriously ill people. As with the Covid outbreak in late 2019, the rest of the world cannot trust China to share the information needed to protect lives outside of China.
Serious consequences, also for the Chinese economy
For the economy, Xi’s quest for state control will lead to irrelevant decisions that no expert can question and a rise in political uncertainty. This is bad news for an economy already weakened by two years of Covid lockdowns, falling confidence in China’s all-important real estate sector and loan defaults eroding the country’s financial sector.
Beijing’s handling of economic statistics is becoming another problem. The sudden decision during the party congress to delay the release of long-scheduled economic data was an ominous sign for global markets.
On foreign policy, Xi’s nationalist views and assertiveness will define relations with rivals, allies and numerous neutral governments reluctant to take sides.
Xi knows China cannot afford a short-term crisis given the scale and urgency of the economic challenges. But he will nonetheless intensify the confrontational “wolf warrior” diplomacy – named after a Chinese action film. His personal sympathy for Vladimir Putin and his worldview will limit China’s cooperation with governments that support Ukraine. Thus, Russia’s increasingly destructive behavior will shape US and European attitudes towards Xi and China in 2023.
The last time a Chinese leader wielded so much unfettered power resulted in starvation, economic ruin and the deaths of millions. A “cultural revolution” or a “great leap forward” is not in sight today. The growing importance of the educated urban middle classes is one of the few ways to limit Xi’s ability to take drastic action. “Maximum Xi” has already cost China and the Chinese people a lot. In 2023, the costs are likely to increase.
