The left and the extreme right have each tabled a referendum motion. However, for this provision to succeed, the two chambers must adopt it by a majority. Above all, the last word belongs to the President of the Republic.
The Nupes and the National Rally tabled a referendum motion on Tuesday. The objective: to obtain the organization of a referendum on the question of pensions and to suspend the discussion of the current bill of the executive. However, this scenario has almost no chance of succeeding.
To be tabled, a referendum motion requires the signature of one tenth of the members of the National Assembly, ie 58 deputies. It must also respond to a bill relating to subjects defined by section 11 of the Constitution. “Economic, social or environmental policy” is one of them. No major obstacle therefore in terms of the filing of these motions on pension reform.
Majority of both chambers
Where the shoe pinches is at the time of the vote. To be adopted, this provision must first receive a simple majority of votes in the National Assembly. However, with the current composition of the hemicycle, even if the far right and left deputies voted for the same motion, this would not constitute a majority.
To achieve it, the votes of the Republican deputies would be necessary. However, even if some within this group are opposed to the text, the leader of these parliamentarians, Olivier Marleix, as well as the boss of the party, Éric Ciotti are in favor of a pension reform.
Above all, an adoption of this initiative in the National Assembly would not mark the end of the journey. It would then be up to the Senate to decide within 30 days. However, it is majority on the right and has been voting for several years for an amendment to postpone the legal retirement age and accelerate the implementation of the Touraine reform – measures defended by the government.
The final decision rests with the President
Proof that the scenario is very improbable: the President of the Republic would have the last word in any case. Indeed, if the two assemblies adopt the referendum motion, it is up to the Head of State to, if he wishes, “submit to referendum” the bill, specifies article 11.
However, the executive was very clear on the subject. Evidenced by the words of Olivier Véran on BFMTV Tuesday during a debate on pensions with Mathilde Panot, leader of the deputies La France insoumise, and Jordan Bardella, boss of the National Rally.
“There has never been a pension reform passed by referendum,” said the government spokesman first.
The executive in danger in the event of a referendum
Referring to the last presidential and legislative elections, he continued: “You had a scratch chance, a draw chance. […] Behind, that you come to tell us in the third session, ‘we are going to hold a referendum’, no, it does not work like that”. One more proof, if it were needed, that a possible referendum on pensions is can no longer be hypothetical.
It would be all the more surprising on the part of the President of the Republic, as the current pension reform is increasingly unpopular with the French. 66% of them said they were opposed to this text in the latest Elabe poll for BFMTV – an increase of 7 points in one week. A possible referendum would thus resemble a kamikaze operation for the government.
“The result is a foregone conclusion. As long as we ask the French to make additional efforts, there is no chance that this sacrificial reform will be adopted by referendum,” said Matthieu Croissandeau, political columnist for BFMTV.
Especially since summarizing such a complex reform in a referendum question would also be very complicated for the Élysée. “A good pension reform should be done in theory in the compromise. It does not lend itself to binary questions as we see in referendums”, concludes Matthieu Croissandeau.
