Berlin.
The AfD is doing well in polls, better than some governing parties. There is a reason for this rise. But there is an antidote.
Die AfD has risen to 16, even 17 percent in some surveys. It is well above its Bundestag result from 2021, when it came to 10.3 percent. This places the party on an equal footing with the Greens and well ahead of the Liberals and the Left.
Now demoscopic surveys are only reliable to a limited extent. Nevertheless, the trend is clear: a good ten years after it was founded, the AfD stronger than ever. And political competition can obviously do little to change that.
In Saxony and Thuringia, the AfD is in first place in polls
This finding is particularly true for East Germany, where three state and local elections will take place in the coming year and where the AfD is expanding its bastion in a targeted manner. In Saxony and Thuringia, the AfD is in first place in polls, in Brandenburg it is second.
There are reasons for this rise. The AfD feeds on fear and protest, it profits from divisions and loss of trust – and it grows with every crisis. The dispute over refugees and integration was replaced by the corona pandemic, while concerns about inflation and energy dominate in the shadow of the war in Ukraine.
Especially in East Germany, where enormous changes were expected of people after decades of historical disadvantage, the populist slogans of the AfD caught on. The mendacious and essentially racist promise of an intact, stable retro-Germany without the EU and migrants finds significantly more supporters here than in the West.
At the same time, which is also part of an honest analysis, the increasing radicalism of the AfD accepted or even appreciated. The fact that the Office for the Protection of the Constitution now classifies some state associations as “proven right-wing extremist” only encourages the core electorate – and at least does not deter the rest of the supporters.
Höcke’s “social patriotism”: clear references to National Socialism
A strategic center is, of all things, small Thuringia. The western national chairman Bjorn Höcke has managed to get the federal party on its course step by step from behind. “Social patriotism”, as he calls it, has clear references to National Socialism.
Also read: Commentary on foundation funding: Give money to the AfD – even if it hurts
The state parliament in Erfurt, where no majorities have been able to form since 2019, is Höcke’s ideal field for experimentation. This is where the FDP head of state settled down Thomas Kemmerich elect the AfD Prime Minister and shake the republic. Here the CDU cannot persuade itself to support the left-led minority coalition with any degree of reliability.
The success of the AfD is not made by the AfD
And here it comes again to more or less random black-blue-yellow decisions. “Then the majority is just there.” This fatal half-sentence, which Kemmerich recently expressed, is representative of the widespread unwillingness to learn from the history of the 20th century or even just the past few years.
Because the success of AfD is not made by the AfD. Rather, the party is divided, incompetent and poorly organized. Like most extreme movements, it only serves as a projection surface and outlet for the majority of its voters – for protest, fear and prejudice.
If Democrats die AfD If you want to shrink back to your real size, you should not only keep as much distance as possible from her and fight her extremism. Despite all the necessary competition, they should act less in a party-tactical and ideology-driven manner. Because the true enemy of the AfD remains good politics.
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