AfD: What the party’s polls mean for the state elections in the East

Analyse

26 percent of East Germans would vote for the AfD.

This is the result of a special evaluation of the weekly Sunday trend by “Bild am Sonntag” and the opinion trend of “Bild”. With this result, the right-wing party would be the strongest force in the eastern German states – three percentage points behind the CDU.

The result is worrying. A new state parliament will be elected in Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia next year. The formation of the government should Thuringia and Saxony at least be interesting according to the current polls. Because the AfD is so strong there that it seems difficult to rule past it.

Expert sees normalization of the AfD

The numbers, says Johannes Hillje, show that the AfD is gradually normalizing. Hillje is a political consultant and author, his hobbyhorse: the communication of the AfD. When asked by watson, he explained: “We are experiencing a dangerous habituation effect: The more radical the party becomes, the more people think of it as a normal democratic party.“

This is all the more true for the East, because trust in the democratic institutions, but also in authorities such as the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, is significantly lower there than in the West. “The observation by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution does not harm the AfD in the east,” he says. In addition, the AfD has an emotional unique selling point: “No party manages fear and identity as strongly as the AfD.”

The polls show that too. In Saxony, the problem is as follows:

For a stable majority in Saxony, the CDU would need all the other democratic parties at its side – meanwhile, CDU Saxony boss and Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer almost incessantly stirs things up against the Greens – with them, however, he governs in a coalition.

In an interview with the “Bild” Kretschmer recently settled accounts with the eco-party. “The policy of the Greens is ecological madness,” he said there. The party lost the basic trust of the East German population.

Saxony’s Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer keeps making extreme demands.Image: dpa / Jan Woitas

Harsh words that cast doubt on trusting coalition work. And this despite the fact that a stable government would be almost impossible without the Greens. Also Kretschmer’s hard positioning in matters Migration policy always stands out as particularly conservative.

AfD would have to remain politically isolated

“The AfD poll high requires democratic steadfastness from the other parties,” says Hillje about dealing with these results. And clarifies:

Every signal, every sounding in this direction normalizes the thought that a radical right-wing force could somehow be involved in power in this country, says the expert. Rather, the other parties must be concerned with isolating the AfD. Integration would be the completely wrong approach. Hillje makes it clear:

Johannes Hillje is a political consultant and author.Image: imago/Metody Popov

In the election campaign, the other parties should make better offers in the political center, says Hillje. That is the better approach than delivering an outbidding competition on the right edge. “Especially when it comes to migration, the other parties shouldn’t fall into the right-wing populist trap and adopt the rhetoric of the AfD,” he says.

Thuringia is divided into right and left

Saxony may not be alone when it comes to difficult government formation. In Thuringia, too, current surveys paint a picture that at least raises questions:

The country is currently led by a red-red-green minority government. That means: Bodo Ramelow’s government is supported by the CDU. And as in Saxony, the cohesion of the democratic parties is crumbling. André Neumann (CDU), Mayor of Altenburg in Thuringia, vented his anger at the poll results on Twitter. He writes: “Everyone is just dissing! Nothing else is expected from the AfD. From the Democrats it is.”

There is not much to be seen of an “everyone together against the AfD” in the eastern German states. Rather, it seems, the democratic parties are moving away from each other. Just as is happening in Saxony with the Greens and the CDU.

The reason given by party researcher Benjamin Höhe in an interview with the “daily News“that in the East German states the voter milieus of black and green do not overlap. In the west it is largely different – that’s why black-green coalitions work better there.

Expert: Findings fit party narrative

In the end, the democratic parties in the eastern German federal states will have to pull together — and possibly forming coalitions they don’t like. Or support minority governments that do not correspond to their own agenda. One party, however, is likely to laugh up its sleeve in the current polls: the AfD.

The right-wing party wants to have a say in government. Right at the beginning of the year, party leader Alice Weidel announced: 2024 will be the year of the AfD.

Not surprising, Hillje thinks. The current survey results should also fit the party’s narrative. But: “Of course, this statement is primarily a strategic movewho is supposed to put pressure on the CDU and mobilize its own base.” The AfD is not capable of forming a coalition. Hillje specifies:

Nevertheless, Hillje concedes, the AfD is using every opportunity to convey its intention to govern precisely because of this hopeless situation. After all, the voters ultimately want to have a say in who governs.

The prospect of more years in the fundamental opposition would probably act more like a “mobilization brake” in the final spurt of the election campaign. “Even if it’s unrealistic, the AfD can’t help but claim that they want to govern,” concludes the expert.

In Thuringia, Thomas Kemmerich (FDP) was briefly elected Prime Minister in 2020 – thanks to the AfD.Image: dpa / Bodo Schackow

For the federal states, this means above all: years of difficult governments – because even if the result of an election does not exactly reflect the poll results, they at least show a trend.

For the democratic parties represented there: Find compromises and work together against the AfD. Party researcher Benjamin Höhne does not see that a party could tip over and form a coalition with the far right.

For that, he explains to the “Tagesschau”, the eastern associations of the AfD are too much under the thumb of the right-wing extremist wing. The CDU also shy away from forming a coalition with an openly right-wing party. The expert estimates that this could only change if the AfD clearly distanced itself from right-wing extremist positions. But as long as there are no taboos for the party, they put themselves on the sidelines. Because so far there have been no prominent voices that really openly made suggestions in the direction of the AfD.