The more intense and long the war unleashed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the more problems arise, not only for the attacked country, but for Europe, USA and maybe everything West. A few days after one year of the conflict, the support of public opinion becomes crucial to imagine what the future scenarios of an event that moves the world may be.
Measuring social mood helps to measure the impact that can affect the intensity, duration and geographical scope of the conflict. Almost twelve months after the start of the fighting, Ukraine continues to enjoy great popularity in Europe, although there are visible signs of fatigue.
According to a survey published by the newspaper le figaroprepared by the firm ifopthe “good opinion” of Ukraine fluctuates between 61% in Germany and 82% in the UKwhile conversely, the popularity of Russia affects, in the best of cases, only the 23% of the Italian population and descends to only 9 percentage points in Poland.
The polls are carried out when the feared catastrophe predicted for the European economy has not come to pass. However, the region has been hit hard, followed by the setback caused by the coronavirus pandemic, but not the feared collapse at the beginning of 2022.
At the start of the Russian aggression, gas prices reached all-time highs, sparking yet another anger: a inflation forgotten among Europeans. Although Europe has dodged recession, the European productive machinery is going through a period of stagnation: 0.1% growth in the euro area in the fourth quarter of 2022 and zero for the whole of the European Union (EU).
While the Ukrainian president, Volodimir Zelenskydemands more powerful weapons, for defense and counterattack, governments are divided among those who want to increase arms support (London and Warsaw)and the league of those who believe that it is time to walk the paths towards a negotiation (Paris, berlin and Rome). The position of the two countries that want to supply more war equipment are at the same time the nations where the populations are decidedly inclined towards Ukraine.
However, European public opinion is beginning to feel the gradual erosion by the effects of the conflict. In France and Germanydemonstrates the work commissioned and published by the French newspaper, popularity has registered a significant and regular decline from 82% to 64% in the hexagon and from 80% to 61% on the other side of the Rhine. Ifop, the person in charge of the survey, has carried out four surveys since February 2022.
This panorama also occurs in Italy with a good opinion, going from 80% to 62 percent. The attrition is less marked in Poland, from 91% to 79% today, and in Spain, from 80% to 74% today.
Measured was also the support for the Economic sanctions imposed on Russia. It is on this topic that there is a solid commitment from the Europeans. Once again, Poland registers 86% approval and the United Kingdom 77%, followed by Spain (77%) and the Netherlands (73%). France, Italy, France and Germany show that 6 out of 10 of their citizens support the measures directed from Brussels.
However, where a crack begins to show is in the consensus for the supply of weapons. The division is again between two axes: London and warsawcountries that advocate more weighty war support and Paris, berlin and Rome who seek to dissipate any excess that justifies extending the war.
The work maintains that in Poland 80% approve the delivery of arms to Ukraine, followed by the British (70%), the Dutch (67%) and the Spanish (60%). On the opposite side are the French (54%), the Germans (54%) and the Italians (49%). But the numbers change when it comes to sending heavy weapons: a fall in the commitment to the delivery of military equipment of 8 and 11 points is registered in Italy and Poland, respectively. The proximity of the conflict also explains the response of the citizens of each country.
Finally, the sponsorship or not for Ukraine’s candidacy for the European Union (EU) It has its differentials. Once again, the Poles are in the lead with 82% of the support, the British continue with 80%, while on the other side of the English Channel, the Spanish gather 79% of the will, and the Netherlands 64% and Italy the 63 percent.
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