Mexico City.- The National Consumer Price Index (INPC) fell 0.08 in the first half of April 2023, which implies an annual rate of 6.32 percent, according to the consensus of the Citibanamex survey of expectations.
The referred annual rate was below the 6.58 percent annual rate registered in the two previous weeks.
For core prices, analysts project a biweekly rise of 0.24 percent, or 7.81 percent annually, less than the 8.03 percent rate posted a fortnight ago.
The consensus forecast for general inflation for April is 0.04 percent monthly and 6.32 percent annually, 53 basis points lower than that registered in March.
For core inflation, respondents estimate 0.45 percent monthly, or 7.74 percent annually, below the 8.09 percent observed in March.
The estimate for the annual general inflation rate at the end of 2023 decreased to 5.13 percent from 5.18 percent fifteen days earlier, while for 2024 it dropped marginally to 4.01 percent from the previous 4.02 percent.
The expectations for core inflation at the end of 2023 were revised to 5.31 percent from 5.32 percent and for 2024 they remained unchanged at 4 percent.
The expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2025-2029 remained at 3.70 percent.
On the other hand, the Citibanamex study shows divided perspectives for the monetary policy decision in May.
According to the results of today’s Citibanamex survey of expectations, 17 of the 32 participants estimate that the next move in the target interest rate will take place in the next month, with 16 of them projecting an increase of 25 basis points (one did not respond the question about the direction and magnitude of the movement).
The rest of the specialists predict that the next move will be a cut in the reference rate, with September as the closest date.
The projection for the monetary policy rate at the end of 2023 fell to 11.25 percent from 11.38 percent the previous fortnight, while for the end of 2024 it remained unchanged at 8.50 percent.
It should be remembered that on March 30, 2023, the Board of Governors of Banco de México unanimously decided to increase the target for the Overnight Interbank Interest Rate by 25 basis points to 11.25 percent.
The next announcement of the Governing Board’s monetary policy decision is scheduled for May 18 of this year.
In exchange matters, the consensus now anticipates the dollar at the end of 2023 at 19.28 pesos, lower than the estimate of 19.44 in the previous survey.
By the end of 2024, the exchange rate is projected at 20.00 units compared to 20.40 two weeks ago.
Respondents expect GDP growth of 1.6 percent in 2023 against 1.4 percent a fortnight ago.
For 2024, the projection for the Mexican economy was placed at an advance of 1.8 percent, the same as in the immediate previous survey.
