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ARD pre-election survey Bremen: SPD is ahead of the CDU ten days before the election
A week and a half before the general election in Bremen, the SPD came to 30 percent in the Sunday question of the ARD pre-election survey in Bremen (-1 percentage point compared to the Bremen trend in mid-April; 2019 general election: 24.9 percent). The CDU is currently at 27 percent (-1 percentage point compared to mid-April; state election 2019: 26.7 percent). The Greens reach 13 percent (-4 compared to mid-April; 2019 general election: 17.4). The left is 10 percent (+3 compared to mid-April; 2019 general election: 11.3). The FDP achieved 6 percent (+-0 compared to mid-April; 2019 general election: 5.9). The angry citizens are 9 percent (+3 compared to mid-April; 2019 state elections: 2.4) and can therefore hope to move into the Bremen state parliament for the first time with a group size. The AfD (2019 citizenship election: 6.1 percent) is not allowed to vote in 2023 due to competing lists of candidates. All other parties currently reach 5 percent. For the representative ARD pre-election survey, the opinion research institute infratest dimap interviewed 1,450 eligible voters in Bremen from Monday to Wednesday of this week.
This survey is specifically about no forecast, but about the political mood in the current week. The Sunday question measures current voting propensities and not actual voting behavior. It determines an intermediate status in the opinion-forming process of the electorate, which is only completed on election Sunday. Conclusions about the outcome of the election are only possible to a limited extent. Many voters commit themselves at short notice before an election. The last phase of the election campaign with the targeted addressing of undecided and tactical voters is also of great importance.
If this were the actual outcome of the election, a grand coalition of the CDU and SPD would also be an option for the formation of a government, in addition to a continuation of the three-party alliance of SPD, Greens and Left. According to the results, an alliance of CDU, Greens and FDP, a red-green coalition of SPD and Greens and an alliance of CDU and Greens currently have no majority.
Of these coalition options, a grand coalition of SPD and CDU would have the greatest approval among those eligible to vote: 34 percent of those surveyed would find this alliance very good or good. A new coalition of SPD, Greens and Left would find 32 percent very good or good. As described, both options would have a majority according to the current results, in contrast to an alliance of SPD and Greens, which 34 percent of those surveyed found very good or good. Two other alliances have less approval, but they also do not have a majority based on the figures from the representative pre-election survey: Only one in six (16 percent) would find a coalition of CDU, Greens and FDP very good or good. Just as many see an alliance between the CDU and the Greens positively.
If the people of Bremen could elect their mayor directly, six out of ten Bremen residents (59 percent) would currently choose incumbent Andreas Bovenschulte (SPD). 23 percent would choose the challenger from the CDU, Frank Imhoff. 18 percent answer this question with “don’t know” or give no answer.
When it comes to the question of which party should lead the next Bremen Senate, the SPD is currently in the lead. 49 percent of those entitled to vote are currently in favor of the current governing party, 32 percent for the CDU. One in five (19 percent) answered “don’t know” or gave no answer.
45 percent of those surveyed are currently very satisfied or satisfied with the work of the Bremen Senate (+-0 percentage points compared to mid-April); 49 percent are less or not at all satisfied (-2).
survey data
- Universe: Population eligible to vote in Bremen
- Number of cases: 1,450 respondents
- Survey period: 01.05. until 03.05.2023
- Collection method: Random telephone and online survey
- Fluctuation range: 2* to 3** percentage points
* with a share value of 10% ** with a share value of 50%
The questions in full:
- In the election to the Bremen Parliament you have 5 votes. Which party would you give all or the most votes to if the general election were on Sunday?
- How satisfied are you with the work of the Bremen Senate? Very satisfied, satisfied, less satisfied or not at all satisfied?
- If it were up to you: Which party should lead the next Bremen Senate?
- The following is about possible compositions of the future Bremen Senate. Do you find a Senate from (…) very good, good, not so good or bad?
- If you could directly elect the mayor of Bremen, who would you choose?
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Original content from: WDR Westdeutscher Rundfunk, transmitted by news aktuell
