Banco de México does not have a good communication strategy. Proof of this are the results of the most recent Citibanamex survey, where 21 of the 32 experts consulted anticipate a rate cut for the next monetary announcement, warned Jesús Garza, Professor at the Graduate School of Business Administration and Management. (EGADE) Business School of ITESM.
Indeed, according to the results of the survey, the median of the interviewees anticipates a cut in the rate of a quarter of a point for the announcement of May 18, and in the breakdown of the information collected it can be seen that eight financial groups estimate that the cut will be half a percentage point.
According to the expert, a clearer participation is required on the part of Governor Victoria Rodríguez Ceja, regarding forward guidance that goes far beyond a descriptive talk about how inflation is going.
From her perspective, both the deputy governors Irene Espinosa and Jonathan Heath “have taken the baton” to communicate with the market, while the governor, whose responsibility includes being “spokesperson for the Governing Board”, does not usually have a public agenda or exchange analysis with market participants.
Despite the fact that the central banker stressed two weeks ago that the possibility of the monetary pause starting should not be surprising, the participants of the Citibanamex survey, 65% of those interviewed, anticipate a cut in the next announcement. This evidence is compelling about miscommunication from the central bank, she detailed.
Confusion despite messages
The same day that the Governor spoke before senators, Deputy Governor Heath spoke with El Economista and said that the current level of inflation allows us to consider that we have reached the terminal rate. And the deputy governor Galia Borja, also explained to this newspaper that the monetary policy will remain restrictive for as long as it is necessary to make inflation fall and get closer to the single objective, which is 3% punctual with a range of +/-1 percent. .
If even so, the market anticipates that what is coming is a cut in the rate, it is clear that there is a failure in the communication of the Bank of Mexico, which is more worrying when the downward trajectories of core inflation and the INPP do not they are strong enough to assume that the slowdown in inflation is consolidated, he stressed.
Regarding the slowdown that inflation is presenting in Mexico, Garza commented that the trajectory in the United States is much more forceful.
