Berlin climate neutral by 2030? “Not realistic, but I’m still in favor of it”

In Berlin, things tend to be a little different than in the rest of Germany. This also applies to the climate issue: Germany wants to become climate-neutral by 2045, i.e. ultimately not emitting more greenhouse gases than nature can handle. The European Union (EU) wants to be there by 2050. Berlin, however, should achieve this goal in seven years, i.e. in the year 2030 – at least if the initiators of a referendum that is unique in this form have their way. On Sunday, Berliners will vote on the proposal.

So far, the Berlin Energy Transition Act stipulates that climate-damaging carbon dioxide emissions should be reduced by 70 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 and become climate-neutral by 2045 at the latest. However, the initiators of the referendum, the alliance “Klimaneustart” (Climate Reset) are not doing this fast enough. They call for a commitment to at least 70 percent reductions by 2025 and at least 95 percent by 2030.

“Everything else is eyewash”

But can this work at all? Can Berlin manage to leave behind oil heating, the internal combustion engine, and the use of coal and gas in industry and energy faster than the rest of Germany? No, argues the Berlin Senate, which is still in red-green-red hands. Berlin cannot go it alone to become climate-neutral 15 years earlier, the reasoning goes. The Senate rejected the proposal, as did all the parliamentary groups represented in the state parliament.

The likely next mayor also spoke out against the proposal. “We have a responsibility for the future of this city, and of course it’s about climate protection,” said CDU country chief Kai Wegner on Friday on the sidelines of the coalition negotiations with the SPD. “But we also have a responsibility for the affordability of this city, we have a responsibility for the security of supply when it comes to energy.” Berlin’s mayor, Franziska Giffey (SPD), shares Wegner’s assessment. “We think it’s important that the topic is promoted, but it’s not possible for Berlin to be climate-neutral by 2030,” said Giffey. “And you have to explain that to the people in no uncertain terms. Anything else is window dressing.”

In Berlin’s civil society, however, opinions differ. Within four months, the initiators had collected 260,000 signatures to force the referendum – far more than the required 171,000. Support comes not only from climate protection associations such as Fridays for Future, but also from the tenants’ association, workers’ welfare and more than 100 companies, including the optics mail order company Mister Spex, the online bank N26 and the price comparison portal Idealo. The Berlin business association UVB, on the other hand, had declared that it viewed the goals of the referendum critically.

Support “with stomach ache”

In science, skepticism is particularly evident. As early as 2021, the Berlin Senate had the Institute for Ecological Economic Research calculate when climate neutrality could be achieved. The result: Nothing will happen before 2040, and then only “with major additional efforts” and with a “significantly more ambitious policy” by the federal government. “My thesis is that we won’t make it by 2030,” agrees climate researcher Fritz Reusswig from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. (PIK) “I believe that 2045 is realistic.” 65, maybe 75 percent climate-neutral – that’s possible by 2030, says Reusswig.

However, he still wants to vote “yes” in the referendum. “I’m still in favor of the referendum because it makes political sense,” says Reusswig. His hope is that politicians could think more about it and create socially acceptable solutions for the implementation of climate protection goals. Especially since he expects only slow progress on climate protection in the event of a new government made up of CDU and SPD in Berlin, says Reusswig: “This black and red Senate will not pay so much attention to the climate issue.”

The climate researcher Felix Creutzig from the TU Berlin also considers the goal to be unattainable. The capital is in a conflict of goals because it is also urgently looking for new ones Apartments had to build, Creutzig said in a podcast of the “Tagesspiegel” at the beginning of March. Housing construction, in turn, leads to CO2 emissions. On Sunday he still wanted to vote “yes”, revealed Creutzig, “with a stomach ache. But I think it’s right that climate protection policy in Berlin is finally getting going.”

The 112 billion question

In fact, the building sector is the biggest obstacle on the way to carbon neutrality. Within seven years, hundreds of thousands of Berlin properties would have to be heated with renewable energies instead of gas, as has been the case up to now. The same applies to district heating, which is largely fed by gas and oil. All public buildings would have to be “comprehensively energetically” renovated, as would the building stock in the city center, which largely dates from the Wilhelminian period or from the former GDR. Traffic is also a problem child: the number of cars continues to rise steadily, according to the authorities, from 1.2 million in 2010 to 1.5 million in January 2021. The expansion of local transport is halting.

The question of financing is still unresolved. The initiators put the costs of a rapid climate change by 2030 at a total of 112 billion euros. That is almost exactly three times Berlin’s current annual budget of 38 billion euros. However, doing nothing is more expensive, argues climate activist Luisa Neubauer, who supports the referendum. “The question of costs is a hollow debate if you don’t counter it with how expensive the climate crisis is and what the climate catastrophe costs,” said Neubauer of the German Press Agency. It’s just not related.

With the ambitious 2030 goal, Berlin would at least not be completely alone in Germany. According to the German Zero association, around 70 cities in Germany are aiming to become carbon neutral by 2035, including well-known names such as Munich and Munster. The capital could be “a beacon of 3.6 million people that shows the transformative power of cities,” said Managing Director Julian Zuber. There are also several large cities at EU level that are committed to the goal of climate neutrality by 2030, such as the Danish capital Copenhagen. Originally, the city even wanted to be the first capital in the world to be climate-neutral by 2025, but last summer postponed the goal to 2030.

thriller expected

In any case, observers expect an election thriller on Sunday. The hurdles to success are high: a total of 25 percent of the 2.4 million eligible voters have to vote yes, which corresponds to around 608,000 people. However, 450,000 people alone submitted an application for postal ballot papers, and most of them are likely to vote “yes”. Because anyone who opposes the motion does not have to take part in the vote.

Because the “Klimaneustart” alliance has linked the vote to a specific legal text, Berlin’s politicians are obliged to implement it if the worst comes to the worst – unlike the successful referendum in September 2021, which called for the expropriation of large housing companies. Trickery is always possible in political practice, but the Berlin parties have already promised to follow the will of the voters. He thinks the goal is unrealistic, said Danny Freymark, spokesman for environmental policy for the CDU parliamentary group in the House of Representatives. But: “If we get the order to make Berlin climate-neutral by 2030, then it’s our job to implement it.”

with agency material