BERLINER MORGENPOST
Berlin (ots)
In Ukraine, tens of thousands of soldiers are preparing for the start of a major military operation that could decisively change the course of the war. The Russian winter offensive failed miserably, and now the Ukrainian counter-offensive is imminent. Their onset is expected in the coming weeks, when the soil is dry, the armored vehicles supplied by the West and the soldiers trained abroad are ready for action.
But it’s still raining. On muddy ground, main battle tanks or armored personnel carriers cannot advance at the speed needed to surprise the enemy in the vast steppes. Whether the Ukrainian armed forces can inflict similarly sensitive blows on the Russian armed forces as in the spring of last year in front of Kiev, in the autumn in the north-east near Kharkiv or in the south near Cherson depends decisively on this moment of surprise.
The Russians have well developed their defensive positions along the more than 1300 km long front line, the Ukrainians do not have the mass of soldiers that military arithmetic would require to simply overrun these positions. The military leadership of Ukraine must therefore find weak points that will enable advances without major casualties. Reconnaissance, artillery, the use of tanks and infantry must be coordinated. It remains to be seen whether the Ukrainian armed forces will be able to master this combined arms battle, i.e. whether the months of training in the NATO countries have been successful.
A success of the counter-offensive is not guaranteed, especially as many of the experienced Ukrainian soldiers and commanders have died in the bloody defensive battles of the past few months or have been injured so badly that they can no longer return to the battlefield. Nervousness is not only great in Ukraine, but also among the western allies. If the Ukrainian armed forces do not succeed in gaining any major territory and the trench warfare in the east and south continues to intensify, discussions about the need for further arms deliveries will increase, as will the pressure to return to the negotiating table. In the USA, which is Kiev’s most important partner, the presidential election campaign is imminent. Support for Ukraine is not an issue President Biden can score points on – especially if the multi-billion dollar military aid is not visibly crowned with success.
The Ukrainian population, on the other hand, has adjusted to the war with a kind of defiant resignation to fate. Hardly anyone is currently in favor of peace at the price of giving up a fifth of the country. But that could change if the counter-offensive fails with a high number of casualties and as a result significantly more young men have to be drafted into military service; currently volunteers are the mainstay. So there is a lot at stake in the coming weeks.
Also for the warmongers in Moscow: If the Russian armed forces once again have to accept a humiliating defeat on the battlefield, the military leadership and the business elite in Russia should come to realize that this war simply cannot be won, that President Putin has miscalculated terribly – and that a withdrawal from Ukraine may be inevitable.
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Original content from: BERLINER MORGENPOST, transmitted by news aktuell
