Between stocks and bonds on what to bet in 2023-proiezionidiborsa.it
Stocks or bonds from now on? How to invest in 2023? What to bet on to earn? As expected in our ten-year projections, the markets close 2022 with a further decline. What to expect from now on? Meanwhile, rates have risen and many are returning to buying bonds. What to do for next year?
Let’s read the calculations that lead us to believe that between stocks and bonds next year it will be in favor of the former.
The probabilities based on the study of the historical series from 1898 to today, made us believe that in the first 27 months of the decade, the ten-year low should have been reached.
Forecast for the decade 2021/2030-proiezionidiborsa.it
So, by March of 2023 markets should turn higher.
Let’s see what the odds are for next year.
Forecasts for the year 2023-proiezionidiborsa.it
There is a 75% chance that the annual high will occur between November and December. Of 75% that the minimum occurs in January, of 100% that it occurs in the first quarter.
This confirms that the 10-year minimum could form again in the next quarter. At the moment the probability that the ten-year minimum has already been formed in October is about 70%.
What return to expect for global equity markets in 2023?
We are looking forward to a very positive year. Yield at 1 year expected between 15 and 20%. There chance that the year is positive is above the 90%.
Of 100% that the probability can be positive for those who start an investment in 5 years.
What are these statistics weighted on?
On the American markets, which have a very high correlation with the Asian and European markets. The best investment strategy to be applied could be the one that invests in geographical areas based on GDP, i.e. 50% America, 30% Europe and 20% Asia and (and of this percentage a small part in Emerging Countries).
High rates and markets: between stocks and bonds, it’s better to buy shares in 2023
Many believe that rising inflation and rising interest rates, should drive the stock markets down. This is a mere mental lucubration, or rather a distortion of reality. In the historical series until high inflation and interest rates “dented economic growth”, and thus corporate profits, markets continued to rise. The latest GDP data in recent days seem to have given indications in this regard. In fact, the markets, after a sharp decline, have already sought a rebound the following day. We will see the indications that will come from the prices of the next few days, and then later from the next quarterly reports of the companies.
