Could we have foreseen the war in Ukraine? How to apprehend the societal and economic upheavals caused by the spectacular development of artificial intelligence and, tomorrow, of the metaverse? Institutions, politicians, large companies are nourished by forecasts. Problem, they are based on models replicating the past and neglect weak signals. How to move from extrapolation to anticipation? Debate with Jean-Christophe Fromantin, Mayor of Neuilly, and Matthieu Courtecuisse, Managing Director of SIA Partners.
L’Express: We are experiencing a juxtaposition of geopolitical and socio-economic crises in a context of technological revolution. Is this situation unprecedented in history?
Matthew Courtecuisse: The question is whether we live in a world of polycrises or in a moment of metamorphosis. Because after a crisis, we generally return to the previous state. On the contrary, I have the feeling that we are not chaining crises but that we are heading towards a structurally different world for several factors. Obviously geopolitical factors, but also considerable demographic ones. And then there is, as you also mentioned, a series of technological breakthroughs with transformational impacts that are extremely powerful in many areas. And, in addition, these areas sometimes intersect, resulting in a cocktail of extremely significant transformations.
But fundamentally, why would the period we are living in be different from other tipping points known in the past, such as at the beginning of the 20th century, for example?
Jean-Christophe Fromantin: There’s a very different element to the era you’re referring to, and that’s the acceleration of time. The speed of transformation and global interconnections mean that ultimately we have no time to breathe. What specialists in natural environments emphasize is that the great periods of climatic oscillations – warming, glaciations – have actually crossed humanity. But their current speed is incompatible with the adaptation of ecosystems. What is true for biodiversity is also true for us. If we do not better control the speed of transformations, then the tensions generated will be extremely difficult to manage.
You talk about speed and acceleration. But there is a fairly regular discourse that we hear about the need to slow down. Is this the answer?
CM I do not believe. If we take the example of the life sciences, the messenger RNA revolution for the pharmaceutical industry is radical. Today, the design times for a new molecule are falling by 40%. And what used to cost $800 million on average probably costs around $400-500 million. So these are huge drivers of change. You have a vaccine in the pipeline that is in advanced phase 2 at Moderna on infarction. Should the prospect of eradicating heart disease be postponed? I do not believe ! It’s the same with cancer. We can’t stop this train. Then there is the specific issue of global warming.
And there, I would say that we should really speed up the discovery and deployment of new technologies. Energy is a sector in which the public authorities have been investing considerable sums for twenty or thirty years to make “low tech”: when you switch from nuclear to wind power, it is not a “transformational” break. The question is therefore to wake up research and development, to think about how we can really fight against climate change, because there is a technology deficit in reality in this area. And I will add that nothing can be done if we do not set a high carbon price to encourage investment.
J.-CF I will not advocate slowing down, but “dynamic stabilization” to use the expression of the German sociologist Hartmut Rosa. He develops that the dynamic of development will not stop. However, we must stabilize the models because today we undergo many shocks which plunge us into a state of amazement. You have to anticipate to stop suffering and regain control.
Finally, what distinction do you make between anticipation and extrapolation?
J.-CF Extrapolation is a way of thinking in silos, whereas anticipation is transversal. If in each field, technology, geopolitics, demography, sociology, we wonder how the future will take shape, we will have results that will be less and less relevant. If, on the other hand, we cross demographic data with health data, migration data or growth data, we have a political prospective in the etymological sense of the word. Today, unfortunately, whether at the level of large institutions or at the level of companies, there is little anticipation.
Anticipation is also the detection of weak signals. Can you give us some examples?
CM At the moment, on the Dark Web, we can feel a rise in arms trafficking linked to the conflict in Ukraine. You can already buy light armor for a few thousand euros. In the next ten to fifteen years, completely illegally and for extremely low amounts, you will be able to obtain a large number of weapons. This is also an element that explains the reluctance of a number of Western countries to give more equipment to Ukraine…
J.-CF I will give another example: the rise in real estate prices in medium-sized towns. Is this the prefiguring signal of a new lifestyle linked to telework offered to employees? Is it an investment that really anticipates a drop in prices in very large cities? What eviction effect can this have on local populations who do not have the same ability to pay as Parisians, for example?
On the notion of anticipation, there is a body which has recently been revived, which is called the High Commission for Planning. Is this the right tool?
J.-CF The State must anticipate, arbitrate and then program what comes close to planning. So planning as such is, in my opinion, only one of the three elements of a forward-looking approach.
Is the state equipped for this?
J.-CF Yes, but there is a subject of political commitment. Do we manage or do we play politics? Doing politics is not about managing, it is taking options and having the courage to carry them out and to have a vision of society that is inspired above all by the deep aspirations of the populations. Furthermore, there is an issue of scale: we have a geographical structure built after the Revolution to optimize public policies, choices of sovereignty, choices of security, etc. at the time. It’s quite surprising that two centuries later, we have the same scales when everything has changed. We reason on a like-for-like basis, without finally rethinking the optimization and efficiency perimeters.
Do you have any anticipation errors in mind?
CM The energy crisis we are experiencing is a huge error in anticipation. Putting oneself, as Germany did, in a strategy of gas dependence with a single supplier – Russia – seems to me to be a mistake of anticipation. Moreover, not having anticipated that at some point, this supplier could use it as a means of blackmail, is also. Multiple signals – cyberattack, disinformation – showed that a form of hostility from Russia was developing.
J.-CF Yes, it is the lack of transversal vision that explains this error. We reasoned energy without integrating the geopolitical component. It’s the same with batteries. Have we anticipated the securing of lithium supplies in order to be able to fulfill our ambitions in terms of the electrification of mobility?
CM I will add another stone to the building. Was it anticipated that major countries extracting rare earths, and in particular lithium such as Australia, could also become major battery manufacturers? We must anticipate this second blow so as not to waste public money.
Jean-Christophe Fromantin created the Anticipations Institute, of which L’Express and SIA Partners are partners. This is a highly innovative, closed-door immersion program for managers and executives of large companies or the general public. Objective: to work and anticipate the future evolution of societies to identify elements of forecast.
