MEXICO CITY. – Less than a month until presidential election in Mexicoscheduled for June 2, the official candidate Claudia Sheinbaum Pardorepresentative of National Regeneration Movement party within the Let’s Keep Making History coalition, he continues to lead in the polls.
However, his main opponent, Xóchitl Gálvez Ruizalliance candidate Strength and Heart for Mexico (PAN, PRI and PRD), is significantly reducing the gap.
On the other hand, Jorge Álvarez Máynezof the Citizen Movement party, It remains in third place according to the most recent polls.
In Mexico, the elections are taking place in a country affected by organized crime violence and serious problems on crucial issues such as water distribution, as well as poverty and inequality as a backdrop for the immediate future.
In the midst of this climate of tension and generalized violence, the election campaignconsidered one of the most relevant electoral processes in the political history of the country.
On this occasion, more than 20,000 public positions will be elected, including the renewal of the Presidency of the Republic and the Congress of the Union, made up of 128 senators and 500 deputies.
In addition, the election of governors will be held in eight states: Chiapas, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Morelos, Puebla, Tabasco, Veracruz and Yucatán; as well as the leadership of Mexico City.
In 29 entities, municipal presidencies or city councils will be renewed. In the country’s capital, the heads of the 16 mayoralties will be elected.
UAn approximate total of 98 million people are called to votewhich represents an increase of nine million compared to the last elections held in 2018.
Last debate
On Sunday, April 28, the second debate was held between the candidates for the Presidency of the Republicorganized by the National Electoral Institute (INE).
According to surveys, 92% of voters did not change their decision after the debate, while only 8% of those surveyed changed their voting intention.
As for who won the debate on this occasion, candidates Sheinbaum and Gálvez are considered winners, but the polls continue to place the Morena candidate in first place, closely followed by the standard bearer of the Fuerza y Corazón por México alliance. On the other hand, Álvarez Máynez remains comfortable in third place.
On May 19, the third electoral debate will take place between the main presidential candidates in the UNAM University Cultural Center, a few weeks before the elections. It will be interesting to see what happens in this event and how it impacts electoral preferences.
All pollsters position the candidate supported by the current president of Mexico, Manuel López Obrador, Claudia Sheinbaum, as the winner with an average of 53.3%, comfortably above Gálvez, who in most polls obtains 32%.
The vote, divided
For professor and political analyst Patricio Morelos, the electoral panorama in Mexico is complex, as he expressed in an exclusive interview for DIARIO LAS AMERICAS.
Morelos pointed out that the electoral trend has not experienced significant changes, since he considers that the vote in Mexico is divided between the followers of Lopez Obrador and those who oppose him. This makes it difficult for campaigns to change citizens’ opinions.
The analyst maintains that Claudia Sheinbaum, former head of Government of Mexico City, continues to lead electoral preferences according to surveys carried out by consulting firms. Therefore, Xóchitl Gálvez’s chances of overcoming the official candidate seem to fade.
According to data from the country’s main pollsters, Gálvez’s opportunities are limited, which complicates the outlook thirty days before the elections.
Morelos explained that presidential elections usually have high participation rates, estimating that this time they will be around 60%.
In addition, he highlighted the high popularity of President López Obrador, stating that he has approximately 60% acceptance among the Mexican population.
Likewise, he pointed out that López Obrador’s party, Morena, governs in 23 of the country’s 32 states, which has strengthened Claudia Sheinbaum’s position in the electoral race.
Regarding Xóchitl Gálvez’s electoral possibilities, Morelos indicated that “she is aware that it is unlikely that she will win, but she must maintain hope in her electorate until the last day of the campaign to avoid discouraging their vote.”
The analyst highlighted that the outlook for Gálvez is complicated and depends “not only on his actions but also on the citizen perception of his parties and his performances in each state.”
Finally, regarding the electoral debates between the candidates, Morelos opined that “the one who speaks or attacks the most does not necessarily win, but rather the one who manages to retain their votes and/or gain support among the followers of their rivals.”
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Source: Interview with political analyst and consultant Patricio Morelos, National Electoral Institute of Mexico website, CNN, Bloomberg, El País, Political Expansion
