This is news that only confirms the trend of recent decades. For the first time in 60 years, China, the most populous country in the world, saw its population decline in 2022. According to data provided by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, this Tuesday, January 17, the country lost 850,000 inhabitants. last year. The number of deaths that occurred, 10.41 million, is higher than the number of births, 9.56 million. An unprecedented fall, but for all that not surprising according to the experts interviewed by L’Express. It could even continue until the end of the century and severely affect the economy of Chinese power.
If several explanations make it possible to interpret these figures: cost of living, work of women, aging of the population… They should all the same be put into perspective. First of all because this drop is very small in proportion. “850,000 fewer people would be equivalent to 30,000 people in France, so it’s not noticeable for the average Chinese”, explains to L’Express, Hervé Le Bras, demographer and director of studies at the EHESS. Then because the birth rate has been falling steadily for several decades in China. And this even before the implementation of the one-child policy launched in 1979. From 1970, Chinese women began to have fewer children. “In 1970, couples had an average of 6 children compared to 2.7 in 1978”, details the demographer. And despite the relaxation of anti-natalist policies from 2015, no lasting rebound in births has been observed “which reinforces the idea that the isolated impact of the one-child policy has been rather marginal”, exposes to L’Express François Chimits, economist at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS).
But then how can this decrease in births be explained? The cost of living has risen sharply in China, as has the cost of raising a child. The higher level of education of women also delays pregnancies. If the desire to have children regressed before the entry into force of the one-child policy, the latter did not reinforce the desire to have several. At AFP, Xiujian Peng, a researcher specializing in Chinese demography at the University of Victoria (Australia) evokes this “habit of having small families”. In 2019, the UN still believed that China would not reach its peak population until 2031-2032. But since then, the fertility rate has collapsed to 1.15 children per woman in 2021, far behind the generation renewal threshold (2.1). For comparison, in 2020, it was 1.8 in France.
Even today China holds a considerable advantage on the world economic stage. According to figures from the National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED), 70% of the population is active (15-59 years), compared to 65% in Brazil, 62% in India, 60% in Western Europe or in North America, and 54% in Japan. In other words, the proportion of economically dependent people (children and the elderly) is very low. This “demographic bonus”, that is to say once the birth rate has collapsed but before the population has aged, should not stimulate economic growth for very long. “Between 2020 and 2021 the rate of elderly people increased from 7% to 13% in China”, explains Hervé Le Bras. The United Nations projects a further increase of 5 points by 2030.
Worrying prospects for the Chinese economy which is already not in great shape. Stuck in its “zero Covid” policy and in its real estate and digital clean-up project, China recorded growth of + 3% in 2022, one of the weakest rates for forty years, has unveiled Beijing on Tuesday. And this figure is well below the target of 5.5% set by the communist regime, revealing in particular the extent of the impact of the health measures, just lifted. However, if demographic fluctuations alone do not make it possible to analyze the economic growth of a country, they nevertheless remain a good point of reference.
China’s shrinking and aging population is also a problem for the country’s economic growth. “Because eventually, there will quite simply be fewer workers and therefore a labor shortage. It also calls into question the general sustainability of the system. If we want to maintain a certain level of productivity, we must generate margins surplus to invest and maintain positive growth,” says economist François Chimits. More generally, China has undergone the fastest demographic transition in history. However, no country has succeeded in catching up with the advanced economies as they age. “But China has so far made a number of empirical knowledge about the economy lie, so we must remain vigilant,” admits the economist. Finally, the aging of the population can lead to geopolitical difficulties. The proportion of young people likely to go to war will be lower and it will also have to take care of the elderly: “this limits your ambitions doubly”, notes François Chimits.
Painful projections for Xi Jinping who still aims to become the world’s leading power. Especially since in number of inhabitants, it is closely followed by India which should dethrone it this year according to the UN. So in recent years, Beijing has changed strategy to try to boost the birth rate. “Beyond the total abolition of antinatalist policies in 2021, the Chinese Communist Party has made a shift by gently deploying pronatalist measures, until making it a political priority assumed at the last Congress in October 2022”, indicates François Chimits . In 2021, strong restrictions on divorces were indeed observed in China. Chinese authorities have passed a law requiring couples to undergo reflection therapy in order to discourage them in their procedure. The number of divorces has thus fallen by 50% compared to 2020. Similarly, China indicated in 2021 its desire to limit abortion when it is not linked to a medical difficulty.
But the Chinese government could come up against opposition from its people because the interest in issues relating to gender equality is growing in China. Conservative birth-incentive policies are perceived as “reductive” for women. “As soon as indications in this direction have emerged in official speeches, demonstrations of discontent have flourished on the networks, learns François Chimits. It is therefore a safe bet that if the pronatalist policies are more coercive, the reactions will be important .”
