A new era could begin in Turkey on Sunday. After 20 years in power, head of state Recep Tayyip Erdogan is predicted to lose the presidential election and his government to lose its majority in parliament. Opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu is the favourite. He promises a reconciliation of the divided society and a return to a predictable foreign and economic policy. The most important questions and answers about the Turkey election.
What is chosen?
The approximately 64 million voters decide on the office of President and the composition of Parliament; In Turkey, the president and parliament are elected every five years on the same day. Voting takes place between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. local time. During the subsequent counting of votes, there will be a news blackout that will be lifted by 8 p.m. CEST at the latest. A first trend should be available later in the evening, the electoral commission in Ankara wants to announce a preliminary result before midnight. There are no extrapolations like in Germany. Voter turnout is expected to be up to 90 percent.
To win the presidential election, a candidate needs more than 50 percent of the votes in the first round on Sunday; If none of the applicants succeed, there will be a runoff between the two best-placed candidates on May 28th. In the parliamentary elections, Turks can choose between 36 parties – the ballot paper is one meter long. A party needs at least seven percent of the votes to enter parliament, but many have formed alliances that bypass this hurdle.
36
parties are on the ballot paper on Sunday.
The most important are the “Alliance of the People” of Erdogan’s ruling AKP party and its far-right partner MHP, and the opposition “Alliance of the Nation” led by Kilicdaroglu’s left-nationalist CHP and the right-wing conservative IYI party. The pro-Kurdish YSP has joined forces with smaller left-wing parties to form the “Alliance for Work and Freedom”.
Who is running in the presidential election?
Incumbent Erdogan, 69, is applying for a third term as head of state. Erdogan has ruled Turkey for 20 years and has shaped the country like only the founder of the state, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, before him. At Erdogan’s request, a presidential system was introduced in 2017 that gives him great powers as head of state without effective control by other institutions. Erdogan has been governing increasingly autocratically for several years. In terms of foreign policy, he loosened Turkey’s ties to the West and deepened relations with Russia.
The 74-year-old Kilicdaroglu, Erdogan’s most important challenger, promises to abolish the presidential system after an election victory, return Turkey to parliamentary democracy and strengthen civil liberties. The third candidate is right-wing nationalist Sinan Ogan, who has no chance of winning. A fourth candidate, Muharrem Ince, withdrew his bid a few days before the election.
What are the most important issues for voters?
According to surveys, the poor economic situation is the most pressing problem for most Turks. Inflation was at times over 80 percent, and the lira has lost a lot of value against the dollar and euro. In addition, Turkey’s imports are growing faster than exports: the foreign trade deficit in April was 44 percent higher than in the same month last year.
The crisis is weakening Erdogan, because economic prosperity has been his most important trump card in elections so far. The president is trying to persuade voters with increases in the state minimum wage and civil servant salaries and a lowering of the retirement age, and promises that things will improve soon.
80
percent. Inflation was so high in Turkey at times.
Kilicdaroglu castigates the consequences of the economic crisis for ordinary people, such as the drastic price increases for staple foods such as onions. Critics also accuse Erdogan of partly causing the crisis himself. Erdogan believes that high interest rates drive up inflation and has therefore been condemning the central bank to cut interest rates again and again for years.
According to orthodox economics, however, interest rates would have to be raised in order to bring down inflation. Erdogan recently resorted to billions in aid from Arab countries to finance his policies; In addition, shortly before the election, Russia, Turkey’s most important energy supplier, agreed to defer Turkey’s billions in oil and gas payments.
Erdogan also got on the defensive on other campaign issues. This included the sometimes late and badly organized help after the earthquake disaster in February and the refugee policy. Kilicdaroglu promises to send the 3.6 million Syrians in Turkey back to their country within two years, thereby taking advantage of the dissatisfaction many Turks have with the refugees.
What do the latest polls say?
Figures from reputable institutes show that Kilicdaroglu’s popularity increased as the campaign progressed, while Erdogan stagnated. The last surveys by the renowned institutes Konda and MetroPoll before the election day predicted a result of more than 49 percent for Kilicdaroglu; Erdogan therefore comes to 44 to 46 percent.
Ince’s withdrawal has added momentum to Kilicdaroglu, with some pundits believing the opposition candidate could win Sunday’s first round. According to the current status, Kilicdaroglu would also be the favorite in a runoff election. According to Konda, Erdogan’s “Alliance of the People” has 44 percent in parliament and Kilicdaroglu’s alliance has 39 percent. The pro-Kurdish party alliance is twelve percent and could thus help the opposition to gain a majority in parliament.
What would change if Kilicdaroglu won?
An election victory for the opposition would be a historic turning point because it would end the Erdogan system. Hundreds of top positions in administration, the judiciary and the media would be filled. Kilicdaroglu would have to address the economy first, restoring investor confidence with a return to orthodox politics; the prospect of a victory for the challenger sent prices on the Istanbul Stock Exchange soaring ahead of the election. Kilicdaroglu also promises more democracy and a new political culture. As president, he himself wants to tolerate sharp criticism of his conduct of office and not have it prosecuted, as Erdogan is doing.
Would Erdogan accept defeat?
Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu fueled speculation that the government would not accept defeat by claiming the election was a “coup attempt” by the West against Erdogan. However, Kilicdaroglu has repeatedly assured his supporters that if defeated, Erdogan will leave the field.
Turkish journalists with close ties to the government also say the government will accept an opposition victory. Ragip Soylu, a well-connected reporter in Ankara, wrote in his newsletter shortly before the election that the suitcases were already being packed in the presidential palace.
