Signs indicate that the coronavirus is making a comeback after months of falling cases. But does the United States need to prepare for a surge?
Experts told NBC News that while cases are rising, they currently don’t expect a large spike and would not advise people to change their behavior at this time.
Hospitalizations have been on an upward trend since early July, the first increase seen this year. There were 8,035 new hospitalizations reported during the week ending July 22, an increase of 12.1% compared to the previous week, although it remains one of the lowest points of the pandemic, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Disease Prevention (CDC). At the same time, last year that number was over 44,000.
“The United States has experienced increases in COVID-19 for the past three summers, so it is not surprising to see a rebound after a long period of declining rates,” CDC spokeswoman Kathleen Conley said in an email.
Dr. Bernard Camins, medical director for infection prevention at Mount Sinai Health System in New York City, said his hospital is seeing about 40 coronavirus patients a day, up from about 10 a day earlier. of the summer.
“The good news is that we are not seeing patients who are that sick,” he said. About 5% of hospitalized coronavirus patients are sick enough to need intensive care treatment, which is a “very small number,” she said.
Camins said there has been no change in people most at risk for severe disease: older adults, people with medical conditions such as diabetes or heart or lung disease, and people who are immunocompromised.
Hospitalization rates have generally been higher in unvaccinated people, Conley said, even though most Americans have some form of immunity from past infections, vaccinations, or both.
There has also been no increase in deaths related to COVID-19, which tends to lag behind an increase in hospitalizations. But deaths may not increase if people get prompt treatment with Paxlovid or other antivirals, Camins said.
Bill Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, said people are more likely to contract the virus now than they were earlier this summer.
“It’s still not very likely that you’ll get it. And if you do, and you’re vaccinated, then your chance of getting seriously ill is very slim,” Hanage added.
CROWDS, HEAT AND SUMMER TRAVEL
It’s not clear exactly why COVID-19 cases are rising, but a number of factors could be at play.
“It might be being driven a little bit by people being indoors when it’s very, very hot in various parts of the country,” Hanage said.
And an increase in travel and crowds could be another reason for the spread of the virus. Summer spikes have occurred in previous years, Camins said.
“I think it might just be the culmination of a lot of activity where people come together,” he said. “Places are crowded, so it just makes it easier for the virus to spread.”
The spike in cases does not necessarily mean the US is at the start of a fall surge, experts said.
“We hope that really starts to happen around October or November,” Hanage said.
Experts don’t recommend that people necessarily change their behavior based on new information. “If you are really at high risk and you are going to be in a crowded space, especially with the numbers going up, you should consider wearing a more protective mask, like a KN95 or N95,” Camins said.
People with symptoms or who believe they have been exposed to the virus should be tested for COVID-19 and follow CDC guidelines, he added.
“If you know you are infected, you should stay home with a mask on and stay away from people,” Camins said. “Or if he was exposed, he should get tested, those recommendations haven’t changed.”
Updated boosters of vaccines to protect against the XBB.1.5 subvariant are expected to be available in the fall. The FDA asked drugmakers to update boosters to target that strain in June, and on Tuesday Pfizer said its booster could be authorized by the end of this month.
“Vaccination remains the safest strategy to avoid hospitalizations, long-term health outcomes, and death,” Conley emphasized.
