All in all, it snowed and rained comparatively little throughout Austria in December, January and February this year. The precipitation deficit this winter is around 13 percent compared to the long-term average from 1961 to 1990. The climate monitoring map of GeoSphere Austria also shows that this deficit primarily affected western Austria.
In Tyrol, Vorarlberg and Salzburg there was around a third less precipitation, according to Klaus Haslinger, Head of the Climate System and Climate Impacts competence unit at GeoSphere Austria. There were also slight deficits in Lower Austria and Upper Austria, while the situation in southern Styria and eastern Carinthia was somewhat better this year.
The precipitation deficit before Christmas was clearly visible, and reports were characterized by images of apere ski areas throughout Europe. But snow is not only important for skiing. “Low precipitation in winter also means little snow cover. In other words: there is a lack of stored liquid at the start of the spring season,” said the drought expert in an interview with ORF.at. If the thin layer of snow melts earlier, one is very soon dependent on precipitation in spring.
Drought is not just drought
In general, a distinction is made between meteorological and agricultural drought. Atmospherically dry conditions caused by a lack of precipitation are referred to as meteorological droughts, while agricultural drought describes the moment when soils begin to dry out and plants suffer from water shortages. Punctual precipitation deficits do not necessarily have to lead to an agricultural drought.
One cannot speak of an agricultural drought at the moment, especially since there is only a small rainfall deficit in the otherwise vulnerable east. “But the development of precipitation in the coming weeks and months will have an impact on whether a longer drought situation will develop,” says Haslinger, summarizing the drought situation.
waiting for rain
It is currently difficult to say whether the drought in winter will have an impact on the coming agricultural season. “It is currently far too early to be able to estimate the effects or any crop failures,” explains the President of the Austrian Chamber of Agriculture (LKÖ), Josef Moosbrugger, on request. The decisive factor is the precipitation situation during the vegetation phase, which is just beginning.
However, it is also clear that “we will start the year with less winter moisture”. However, depending on its composition, the soil has the ability to store water, which results in a certain buffer. “If you compare the whole thing with energy, then we start the new season with quite empty batteries,” says Moosbrugger.
Extremwetter
Although individual extreme events cannot be directly traced back to a specific cause, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change it is clear that extreme weather events such as floods, storms and heat are becoming more frequent and more intense as a result of the climate crisis. This means: Precipitation and storms are getting heavier, heat waves are getting hotter and droughts are getting drier.
In general, a change in conditions due to global warming is also noticeable for agriculture: “We clearly notice that temperatures are rising and the wind is picking up. The vegetation shifts significantly forward during the year. This means that flowering takes place earlier, which in turn means that the risk of late frosts increases massively in some crops.”
In addition to drought, other extreme weather events such as hailstorms, heavy rain, floods and storms would also threaten the harvest. In addition, pests would appear more frequently due to milder winters. “All in all, it is undeniable that the conditions are becoming more challenging, but making a forecast for the 2023 harvest now would be dubious,” said the LKÖ President.
Adaptive measures are essential
For agriculture, the groundwater levels and the runoff in surfaces are an essential factor for sufficient irrigation. However, the distribution of water requirements varies in Austria, as stated in a study by the Ministry of Agriculture (“Water Treasure Austria”): “Across Austria, the proportion of Although irrigation is a small part of the total water requirement at around 69 million cubic meters per year, it is concentrated in a few regions in eastern Austria and during the growing season.”
The majority of this is actively extracted from groundwater bodies using wells, while the remainder comes from surface water and springs. For the time horizon 2050, it is assumed that the average irrigation requirement will increase by around 80 percent, and even more in dry years.
According to the study, the availability of water resources for agricultural irrigation can become a seasonal challenge, especially during dry periods, since the irrigation requirement in agriculture is concentrated not only in terms of space but also in terms of time. Groundwater levels and a required minimum discharge in surface waters as well as other uses would have to be taken into account.
Drought plan based on the French model?
There will therefore continue to be certain shifts and adjustments in the field of agriculture, explains Hans-Peter Kaul, head of the Institute for Crop Production at the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU). But “the image of agriculture in the landscape will not change significantly”. For example, niche products would be added, which is particularly interesting from an economic point of view. Crops that grow in drier and hotter areas will continue to increase – such as soybean, millet and corn.
The situation in Austria is even better than in France, where in some places plans to ration drinking water are already being implemented. “Also because it rained more in the otherwise vulnerable east,” says Haslinger. But: The groundwater is still low, and another dry season like this could definitely lead to problems in some areas, according to the hydroclimatologist. “Everything south and east of Vienna has been very dry in recent years.”
Kaul also knows that the situation in France is different from that in Austria. In the medium term, the water supply in Austria is largely covered. It is more conceivable in this country that there will be small-scale water-saving measures. It should not be forgotten that such restrictions “are also an intervention in the lives of the population, not just farmers,” said the agricultural scientist to ORF.at.
Groundwater is becoming less and less
In Europe, the groundwater is becoming less and less. After the drought of last summer, water suppliers and communities are preparing for a possible shortage of drinking water.
“If it becomes apparent for certain regions that bottlenecks may occur in public water supply systems or in individual water supply systems, emergency measures will be planned by the water supplier and the municipality,” the Ministry of Agriculture said on request. As a rule, bridging measures were taken by water suppliers or by means of water transport, for example by the fire brigade.
Consistent data collection essential
In addition to adaptation measures, data collection is also an important factor in dealing with the drought. Haslinger would like more cooperation here: “Across the board would be important.” GeoSphere Austria has an internal drought monitoring system that includes precipitation and evaporation. However, it would be desirable to combine recordings of surface water levels, for example.
Regions should also work better together. Hydrography is now divided between the federal states, each with their own monitoring system. “Of course, a nationwide picture of Austria would make sense,” Haslinger continued. There is definitely interest in working together on monitoring strategies, and there are also talks to that effect.
