In February 2023, the Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE) had a growth of just 0.2% compared to the same month last year and registered a variation close to 0 compared to January in the seasonally adjusted measurement, as reported today. the Indec.
“In February 2023, the monthly estimator of economic activity (EMAE) registered an increase of 0.2% compared to the same month of 2022. The seasonally adjusted indicator and the trend-cycle indicator did not register variations with respect to the previous month,” stated the statistical agency in its report.
In this way, the indicator thus accumulated 5 of the last 6 months without advancing monthly, with a contraction of 2.1% in the seasonally adjusted index since August 2022, the maximum level of last year for the EMAE.
“In relation to the same month of 2022, nine sectors of activity that make up the EMAE registered increases in February, among which the exploitation of mines and quarries (+11.1% yoy) and Hotels and restaurants (+8.6% ia)”, said the report, while adding that the mining sector had the greatest positive impact on the EMAE year-on-year variation, followed by Real estate, business and rental activities (+2.1% yoy).
For their part, the other six sectors of economic activity surveyed by INDEC registered falls in the year-on-year comparison, with Fishing (-20% year-on-year) at the top of the record and industrial activity falling 1.3 percent. “These sectors subtracted 0.5 percentage points from the interannual variation of the EMAE,” said INDEC.
Other segments that registered drops in their performance in relation to the same month of the previous year were Transport and communications (-0.3%), Agriculture, Livestock, hunting and forestry (-0.7%), Wholesale and retail trade and repairs ( -0.5%), Financial intermediation (-2.7%) and Taxes net of subsidies (-3%).
“Our seasonally adjusted series indicated that the producers of goods advanced while those of services contracted. Among the former, there was an advance in Agriculture, with Industry falling as indicated by the manufacturing IPI. Among the latter, Commerce, Financial Intermediation and Transport & Communications gave way, while Hotels & Restaurants and Real Estate Activity registered advances”, he explained. Juan Manuel Franco, Chief Economist at Grupo SBS.
In this way, the analyst explained, the statistical carryover provided by February for the general activity of 2023 stands at -0.7%. However, he added that there are signs that suggest that there was an advance in activity in March, among them the collection of internal VAT as the demand for electricity, cement dispatches, steel production and automobile production and sales would have advanced. in March.
“We believe that the economy could have advanced that month, although we maintain the bearish bias for the rest of the yearFranco said. And he highlighted a forecast of real GDP contraction of 3% for this year, especially driven by the “drought effect” and also by the lack of dollars to import inputs. As the elections approach, “uncertainty levels could increase, limiting private investment and job creation,” he added.
Along the same lines, a report from the LCG consultant, pointed out that the stagnation in February “again shows the difficulty of the economy in recovering the dynamics of greater activity. In the last six months only one (January) managed to have a positive monthly variation”.
“In view of the adverse effects that the drought is generating and an accelerated deterioration of purchasing power, we understand that the current level of activity will operate as a ceiling for the current year, in which we expect the annual fall to accumulate an average of 3.7%”, concluded LCG
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