The lead of the conservative National Coalition Party (Kokoomus) to the SDP has shrunk in the last polls, but the center-right party is almost 20 percent ahead of the Social Democrats. Like the right-wing populist Finns Party (PS, formerly: True Finns), they reach around 19 percent.
The formerly powerful Center Party, the Greens and the Left Party are leveling off between eight and ten percent, while the liberal Swedish People’s Party and the Christian Democrats are around four percent.
Marin remains popular
At the age of 34, Marin, who is now 37, became Europe’s youngest head of government at the end of 2019 after the resignation of her predecessor Antti Rinne. She was considered the shooting star of European social democrats as well as those in Finland. A video published on social networks in the summer, which showed her dancing privately with friends while Europe and Finland were struggling with the energy crisis, caused heated debates but did not dampen her popularity.
ORF correspondent Wolschek on the Finland elections
Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin is popular with the Finns, she managed to join NATO – so why does she still have to tremble about re-election? ZIB correspondent Barbara Wolschek reports.
Despite the pandemic and the aftermath of the Russian invasion, Marin continues to enjoy high popularity. According to a survey conducted at the end of last year, 64 percent of respondents rated Marin’s work as prime minister as “very good” or “quite good”. “It is unusual that support for the prime minister does not wane by the end of the legislature,” historian Jenni Karimaki told the BBC. This is a novelty in Finnish politics.
High national debt
Marin campaigned with her party on social and health issues and promised to improve public services. The share of social spending in gross domestic product (GDP) is high. Last year it was 29 percent.
The national debt rose to 70.9 percent of GDP in the third quarter of last year. When Marin took office at the end of 2019, this proportion was still 65 percent. However, Marin rejected cuts in social benefits. Her party is more focused on economic growth and an end to tax loopholes.
Opposition wants to save
Petteri Orpo (53), leader of the opposition Kokoomus, accuses Marin’s government of waste and calls for a restructuring of public finances. Riikka Purra (45), head of PS, is also calling for stricter austerity measures. In addition, it takes up the dissatisfaction of the population due to inflation. When it comes to immigration policy, the PS wants to take Denmark and Sweden as examples and reduce migration from “outside the EU”.
The crises have also left their mark on the Finnish population. According to the recently published World Happiness Report, Finns are still considered the happiest people in the world based on evaluation criteria such as social support, income, health and generosity.
However, high energy prices, inflation and the insecurity caused by the war in Ukraine – Finland shares a 1,340-kilometer border with Russia – increased support for conservatives and right-wing populists among the population.
Unanimity on joining NATO
On the other hand, there are no major differences between the parties when it comes to supporting Ukraine. Marin recently paid a solidarity visit to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kiev. Purra also exempts the Ukrainians from their tough asylum line and is “extremely committed”, as she says herself.
The shift from neutrality to a NATO membership application is supported by almost all political camps in Finland. Turkey was the last NATO member to officially agree to Finland’s admission on Thursday. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg then announced that accession could now take place within a few days.
Right-wing populists score with boys
With ten parties currently represented in parliament, long coalition talks can be expected after the election. In Finland, the party with the most votes traditionally receives the mandate to form a government. If Marin succeeds with the Social Democrats, a new edition of the currently ruling five-party coalition – all five are led by women – as well as a coalition with the Conservatives is possible, albeit with tough negotiations about the course of economic policy.
Some political observers see Purra and her party as a possible surprise winner in the election. According to the polls, she scores particularly well with young voters, and her party is also well represented on TikTok. “For many young people, they (representatives of the Finns party, note) are a hip party with cool videos on TikTok,” said political scientist Emilia Palonen.
The party claims to be a new, alternative for young people. At the same time, the party speaks out against strict climate protection measures and argues that this is damaging to the economy. Palonen: “They tap into people’s concerns about inflation and high electricity prices.” However, if Purra wins the election, it will be difficult to form a coalition. With the exception of Orpos, most parties have ruled out cooperation with the right-wing populists.
