Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to bring forward the elections in his country. His governing party, the AKP, is considering moving the parliamentary and presidential elections forward from mid-June to mid-May or late April. According to critics, the government fears that the effects of its expensive election gifts could fizzle out by June. The new election discussion is fueling a debate about the legitimacy of Erdogan’s renewed presidential candidacy.
Previously, government politicians had ruled out elections before the regular June 18 date. Now Erdogan confirmed on Thursday that a “small” move forward is under discussion. The reason he gave was the “seasonal conditions”, i.e. the start of the holiday season in June. Erdogan’s right-wing alliance partner Devlet Bahceli had previously announced his willingness to make an earlier appointment.
Recent polls put the government alliance ahead of the largest opposition alliance, but far from a majority in parliament. The opposition has not yet identified a challenger for Erdogan. The parliamentary and presidential elections take place on the same day.
According to surveys, the bad economic situation, the still high inflation and the depreciation of the lira are the most important problems for voters. Erdogan has therefore recently increased the statutory minimum wage, opened up the possibility of early retirement for two million Turks and increased the salaries of civil servants. The official inflation rate has fallen to 64 percent from over 85 percent in October.
How long these improvements will last is uncertain. Fehmi Koru, an adviser to former President and Erdogan critic Abdullah Gul, commented that the government does not want to wait until the regular election date because the economic crisis will worsen by then.
The opposition is calling for the elections to be brought forward to before April 6, but the government refuses. A new electoral law would apply to elections after this date, which critics believe puts the opposition at a disadvantage. The AKP wants to have elections under the new law and bring the election forward by no more than seven weeks.
The method of moving the election forward is also controversial
According to media reports, in internal AKP consultations April 30 or May 14 is spoken of as election day. Should a second round of the presidential election become necessary, it would then take place on May 14th or 28th.
In addition to the date of the election, the method of bringing it forward is also controversial. In Turkey, according to the constitution, both the president and the parliament can order early elections. The government needs the approval of the opposition in parliament for this, but a date in May or at the end of April cannot be agreed upon.
Erdogan could call early elections single-handedly, but that would be a risk because the constitution allows for a maximum of two terms for the president. Erdogan was elected president for the first time in 2014 and for the second time in 2018. If parliament forces early elections, Erdogan’s current term of office will not be considered completed according to the constitution – he could become president again and stay in office for another five years. However, if he calls the new elections himself, according to the constitution he is not allowed to run again.
Some opposition parties want to lodge a complaint with the election officer as soon as Erdogan formally registers as a candidate. But the chances of success are slim. The AKP argues that the 2014 election took place under a different constitution and therefore does not count; Nothing stands in the way of Erdogan’s renewed candidacy.
It is unlikely that the election commissioner and the constitutional court would dare to oppose the will of the president. Despite this, Erdogan’s new candidacy and his political future are becoming a campaign issue. The 68-year-old has stated several times in recent weeks that he wants to run for president for a mandate from the electorate for the last time this year. He wanted to herald the “century of Turkey” and then place the work in younger hands. However, he restricted that this does not mean that he would withdraw from politics.
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