Facing the elections presidential elections the deputy of La Libertad Avanza Javier Miley is consolidated as the third option behind Together for Change as in Front of All and the concern generated by its growth in these two spaces has a possible explanation in a recent survey which showed that not only it takes potential voters from the opposition alliance but also from the pro-government front.
This is a survey by the consulting firm Gira 3.0 carried out between February 27 and March 3 on 1,500 people in the province of Buenos Aires, the district where 37% of the national census is concentrated. According to this study, there the Frente de Todos has an intention to vote for the presidential elections that beats Together for Change by 6.5 points.
In the measurement by political space, the pro-government alliance reaped 35.5% while the opposition coalition obtained 29%. As in various surveys, here too Milei appeared in third place with 14.9% of preferences.which confirms that the libertarian has established himself in that position that the Left once held, today at 1.3%.
However, the most interesting data from the survey is the intention to vote according to the political space chosen in 2019 between the formula Alberto Fernández-Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and Mauricio Macri-Miguel Pichetto. According to the survey, Together for Change lost more than 10% of those votes at the hands of Milei and the ruling party almost 5%.
Elections: how many voters would Milei get from the Frente de Todos y Juntos por el Cambio, according to the survey?
The Gira 3.0 survey in the province of Buenos Aires showed that, among those who voted for the Macri-Pichetto formula in 2019, 72.9% would choose Together for Change this year but 13.1% would favor the deputy and economist.
That Milei disputes votes with the opposition alliance is no secret, but according to this poll, the Frente de Todos also suffers from the growth of the libertarian, given that 4.7% of those who voted in 2019 for the Fernández-Fernández formula today would choose the referent of La Libertad Avanza.
Milei is benefiting from a significant flight of votes from the opposition and also from the ruling party, according to the survey
Milei’s distinct feature is her anti-system speech and his tirade against what he calls “the political caste”. This makes the flight of Frente de Todos voters to their space more surprising than that of the opposition coalition despite being smaller, due to the permanent appreciation of the “political militancy” carried out by Kirchnerism.
Part of this migration could be explained by the behavior of the young voter (voters between the ages of 16 and 35) that has been studied by various consultants. Milei grows in that segment of the electorate and particularly among men according to various surveys.
The election for Buenos Aires governor: does Milei weaken the opposition?
Milei’s discovery occurred in the 2021 legislative elections, when he consolidated third in the City of Buenos Aires and surprised with the high level of support achieved in some of the lowest-income neighborhoods. It was then that analysts began to assess the migration of voters from the two main coalitions to the libertarian.
According to the Gira 3.0 survey this migration also threatens to have an effect on the election for governor of the province of Buenos Aires and could mainly harm Juntos por el Cambio despite the fact that Milei still does not have a candidate and in the opposition alliance there are already several who walk the territory and campaign.
In another analysis that took the 2019 vote as a parameter, the survey indicated that a 10.3% of the voters of the Macri-Pichetto formula would lean towards La Libertad Avanzarepresented in the survey by the offer of Milei for president and the also deputy Carolina Píparo for governor.
Meanwhile, 48.8% of those voters chose the hypothetical formula of Patricia Bullrich for president and Cristian Ritondo for governor and 27.2% for Horacio Rodríguez Larreta for president and Diego Santilli for governor.
The libertarian consolidates in third place for the presidential elections according to almost all the polls
The possible effect of vote migration on the gubernatorial election is seen more clearly when noting that of the voters of the Fernández-Fernández formula in 2019 only 3.3% would lean towards Milei and Píparo this year, while 67.2% would opt for Cristina Kirchner and the current governor, Axel Kicillof, and 8.2% for Sergio Massa with Kicillof.
What about the inmates of the Frente de Todos and Juntos por el Cambio?
The survey on the province of Buenos Aires also sought to measure the inmates that are disputed in the Frente de Todos and in Juntos por el Cambio. There stood out a difference between the projections on the bid for the presidential candidacy of the opposition alliance and that of the competition for the candidacy for governor of Buenos Aires.
In the survey on intention to vote for president Bullrich got 17.9% and surpassed his most direct rival for the primaries (PASO) Rodríguez Larreta, who got 13%. Further behind were María Eugenia Vidal with 2.6% and the radical Facundo Manes with 2%.
However, when measuring the individual pre-candidates for governor – without the presidential candidates – Santilli, Rodríguez Larreta’s candidate, prevailed with 18.8% while Ritondo, supported by Macri and Vidal and close to Bullrich, obtained 12.7% in this poll. The radical Maximiliano Abad was far third with 2.4%.
In front of everyone If Massa competed against President Alberto Fernández, he would get 9 points advantage according to this survey, given that the economy minister measured 20.5% and the head of state 11.5%.
In the poll of the candidates for governor, the official Kicillof was the one who came out best, with 37.2% that could not be surpassed by the 33.9% that Santilli, Ritondo and Manes would add, always according to this survey.
