The right swept Chili and will be the one to write the new constitution. He Republican Party He led the election, but now he must reach consensus so that there is no uncertainty in the next plebiscite.
Analysts consulted by DFSUD.comwho pointed out that the results were “positive” for the Chilean market, but advanced that it will be necessary to reach agreements that include the demands of citizens.
The Colombian lawyer and specialist in international politics, Jairo Libreros, recognized that the country is immersed in an economic context marked by a high level of uncertainty and fear of recession, to which would be added “this second defeat -very strong- of gabriel boric”.
However, in his opinion, this “does not mean that it will affect the ability of various sectors to invest in a country like Chile, which has been characterized by having very solid foundations (…) As difficult as the defeat of the government may be, It is clear that there is a civil society that knows how to make decisions and that can change voting intentions, but is not willing to make an institutional change”.
For his part, the chief economist of Credicorp Capital, Daniel Velandia, described the results as “a new blow to the administration of gabriel boric”, considering the rejection of the previous text and the tax reform that he promoted in 2022.
Meanwhile, the chief economist of LarrainVial, Javier Salinas, although the “composition (of the council) was surprising, the vision that the risks are limited is confirmed, because it will be difficult for us to see anti-market measures.”
rebalancing of power
For his part, the Peruvian economist, Elmer Cuba, pointed out that the Chilean decision “rebalances the power that the left had in the previous assembly” and estimated that this process “has been almost a plebiscite on the Boric government.”
In this sense, Velandia insisted that the fact that the right has reached the three-fifths necessary to carry out the proposals, “leads one to think that the Constitution is going to be inclined towards not generating great radical changes in Chile, which is quite positive.” ”.
Meanwhile, Libreros, who is also a professor of security and national defense at the Externado de Colombia University, added that the victory of the opposition coalition was due to the fact that they proposed “initiatives to protect Chilean institutions.”
For this reason, despite the complex regional scenario, there are already signs from the international community to invest in Latin America, “and the jewel in the crown, no matter how difficult the moment may be, is called Chile,” said the specialist.
He considered that investments were only frozen due to the uncertainty of the confinement, “but with the votes this Sunday it became clear that it is the right country to take greater risks, from the investment point of view, due to its institutional solidity and the legal protection of commercial activities”.
“With these results, the possibility of radical changes or issues that put investment at risk is further reduced and we will have an improvement in this regard,” stressed the Colombian expert.
In this regard, LarrainVial’s share strategy manager for the Andean region, Luis Ramos, commented “there will be less regulatory pressure in some sectors that were concerned, such as commodities and utilities. “These (election results) take additional pressure off (the markets) in the face of investment uncertainty, because we believe there are sectors that could be primarily tied to investment and patterns in the economy that could see more beneficiaries with a clearer political panorama”.
Facing the exit plebiscite
Despite the fact that this is a positive scenario, Velandia is cautious and warns that this “is not the end of uncertainty”, since what economists are now questioning is “how will this process end, beyond the fact that the right has been left with the majority”.
In this sense, the chief economist of Credicorp Capital was clear in pointing out that the important thing is that there be agreements. “There must be consensus so that the process does not become complex in the exit referendum, because there is still the risk that the people reject the new constitution, that is why we have to face a series of demands that are sensible”.
For its part, Cuba commented that Chileans should not “waste this opportunity. They cannot go back to September 2019 (social outbreak). The people want improvements without jeopardizing progress (…) That is the mandate, reading both elections and the process”.
Meanwhile, Salinas commented that “the exit plebiscite would cease to be relevant for the market because in either of the two scenarios (that Republicans open up to dialogue or if they oppose changes) the economic conditions will be maintained, so itself, the risks are shortened”.
Finally, Velandia indicated that to avoid uncertainty, “yes, there must be a very sensible conversation between all parties and political spectrums to have a good constitution that covers a large part of the demands, otherwise, it could be rejected and social unrest could reappear.” ”.
