He free dollar It deepened its upward trend this Monday due to various coverages in hard currency, given the growing uncertainty about the economic and political scenario in a year with recession and presidential elections.
Strong imbalances in the public accounts, scarce reserves in the Central Bank, projected inflation above 100% and political tensions in the ruling party and the opposition ahead of the primary and general elections, create a tense climate in financial business.
The free dollar renewed nominal all-time highs and widened the gap to the highest since last August. The “blue” registered one of the most moved wheels since the return of the exchange “stocks”. The currency was traded at a record $465 for sale, to end up being offered to $462, in the zone of nominal maximums. He daily jump of 20 pesos, 4.5%, was the largest since the “corrida” began in April. So far this month the rise is 67 pesos or 17 percent.
With this abrupt rise, the free dollar was located for the first time above the price of the tourist dollarwhich ended the day at 452 pesos.
The gap exchange rate with the wholesale dollar, which ended at $220.21, reached the 109.8 percent.
The stock market dollars also reached maximum prices. With an important official intervention, through the sale of bonds in the portfolio of public entities, which depresses the price of public securities, the dollar prices implicit in stock market assets fell by around eight pesos in the morning, but the search for dollars through stocks and bonds was relentless and the dollar “counted with liquidation” through the Global 2030 bond (GD30C) closed at $456.20while the MEP dollar with the Bonar 2030 (AL30D) amounted to 448.71 pesos.
The exchange rate gap exceeded 100 percent again after eight months
“I think that, in the short term, the key will be if the Peronists in power manage to muddle through with their unconventional measures to avoid a devaluation. This will be increasingly difficult due to the impacts of the drought,” he told Reuters Kimberley Sperrfechter, economist at Capital Economics. He noted that “even if they manage to do it, it is clear that the peso is fundamentally misaligned and a devaluation is more likely to occur after the elections.”
President Alberto Fernandez announced on Friday that he will not seek re-election, a decision that was demanded by the “Kirchnerista” sector, the wing of Peronism led by Vice President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.
The agro-export complex liquidated this Monday USD 105.8 million and the Central Bank added those USD 106 million to its battered reserves thanks to the application of a special exchange rate called ‘soybean dollar 3’. The monetary entity recorded the third session followed with net purchases.
With this daily operation, the result for April became positive for USD 191 million and the accumulated result in this third stage of special exchange amounts to 1,391 million dollars. This Monday, payments for the importation of energy for 180 million dollars were finalized, reported market sources.
The BCRA ordered on Thursday the postponement until the end of the year of payments for imports of professional services and freight for USD 2,000 million between related companies to deal with the severe shortage of foreign currency that the country is suffering.
“We see the consolidation of a trend towards the dollarization of investment portfolios, leveraged by the political movements of last week, the drought and the electoral route still ahead. With these outstanding ingredients, the Ministry of Economy will have the difficult mission of reassuring the markets”, indicated a report by Balance Capital. “We find Global bonds attractive at current levels, as they are below restructuring scenario prices,” she added.
Sovereign bonds traded on the Mercado Abierto Electrónico (MAE) gained 0.4% on average in pesos, influenced by the trend of dollarized issues, where the Global 2030 bond stood out with an improvement of up to 3.5 percent. hundred. The bonds in dollars ended traded with an average rise of 0.9%, according to the reference of the Global titles of the exchange in Wall Street. He risk country of JP Morgan, which measures the gap in the return rate of US Treasury bonds with similar emerging issues, marked a drop of nine integers for Argentina, to 2,624 points Basics at 5:20 p.m.
“Fernández’s resignation (for re-election) does not change the substance of the matter and there are many doubts that enough agricultural dollars will enter,” said the economist. Camilo Tiscorniaand affirmed that “the scenario is very volatile”.
The hedges for the devaluation made the stock market referential S&P Merval of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange rose 2.9%, to 299,421 points as provisional closing, after annotating its nominal all-time high of 300,455 units intraday.
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