The inflation it upsets all the projections made by the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa.
Not only is the rate of increase in the cost of living twice as high as expected, but the funds earmarked for social plans They threaten to make water before the elections next October, according to the consolidated of the first four-month period, indicates official figures.
It is that in barely four months $430,000 million have already been allocated to the Potenciar Trabajo and Alimentar Card plans. They are the two main social aid programs and a mainstay of the political support that the Government has among the piquetero organizations.
According to private projections, the spending of the two main social plans will increase at least 150% this year, 30 points above forecast inflation. It will be about $1.3 trillion, 30% above what is included in the Budget.
Reassign games at the worst time
This would force the government to reallocate Budget items at the worst moment, when the presidential elections are imminent, or run the risk of an increase in protests led by piquetero organizations.
At the end of the first four-month period, the expenditure allocated to the two main assistance programs It increased by 33%, which annualized is far from the annual goal of 60% set by Economy for 2023.
The Government will run out of funds for social plans before the October elections
At the rate of almost $3.6 billion a day, the plans Promote Work and the Food Card They absorb a large part of the public budget.
The Potenciar Trabajo is administered by the piquetero leader and Secretary of Social Economy, Emilio Pérsico, while the Alimentar Card is in charge of La Cámpora.
Inflationary pressure and its impact on spending on social plans
It is remarkable how inflation led to spending on social plans will increase. It went from $2.690 million in January to $3.000 million in February, $3.400 in March and $3.600 million in April.
At this rate, the projected budget will be exhausted by the end of next Septemberthree weeks before the presidential elections.
Everything indicates that the Government will then lean towards reallocate budget items to face the last quarter of the year. This will be one of the main issues to be addressed by the presidential candidates and, above all, whoever is elected after December 10.
The opposition agree that such a budget will no longer be administered by the piquetero organizations, because they suspect that not all the funds reach the beneficiaries.
Everything indicates that the projected budget will run out by the end of September, three weeks before the presidential elections.
Social plans: complicated numbers
For him Enhance Work an annual budget of $591,000 million is foreseen. $238,000 million have already been spent, 40% of the total. The disbursements are equivalent to about $2,000 million per day, for more than 1.3 million beneficiaries. The requirement is to work four hours a day, Monday through Friday, but this is generally not met.
This plan pays half the Minimum Vital and Mobile Salary, about $40,160 per month, managed by social organizations, which transfer the resources to each beneficiary, and keep a percentage, which is around 3%, that is, a fabulous budget for, for example, organizing protests on July 9.
In the case of the Food Card, it has a budget of $443,000 million for 2023. In four months, it has already consumed $192,000 million. That’s $1.6 billion a day. The program has already used up 43% of the funds provided, also as a consequence of higher inflation.
The Food Card reaches 1.4 million beneficiariesand is in charge of the Secretary of Social Inclusion, Laura Alonso, who answers to Máximo Kirchner.
Also at this rate, by the end of September the program will run out of funds.
