Berlin.
Replacing gas and oil heating systems with heat pumps could turn out to be much more expensive than previously assumed – new figures make you sit up and take notice.
- Economics Minister Robert Habeck is a thorn in the side of oil and gas heating in Germany
- However, there is resistance to these plans, as many believe the targets are unrealistic
- Critics say the costs of the heating ban are excessive. Will the law be passed at all?
Criticism of Economics Minister Robert Habeck’s plans for a new heating law is not leveling off. In essence, it is about the ban on gas and oil heating from 2024 without a renewable component. The traffic light coalition wants to prescribe that climate-friendly proportion of 65 percent for new oil and gas heating systems by law. For many consumer this could inevitably mean an obligation for the heat pump. Because even a modern “H2-ready” gas heater with a hydrogen content in the gas mixture does not meet this criterion.
Ban on gas and oil heating costs billions – these costs are in the bill
The combination of oil heating with a solar or solar thermal system is at least popular old buildings mathematically not on this 65 percent. In addition, Habeck’s schedule envisages a ban on gas and oil heating until 2045. There is already an obligation to replace many older gas and oil heating systems over 30 years old. Criticism of the traffic light’s plans for a new building energy law (GEG) comes from associations and the political opposition. In an interview with our editors, Habeck defended his heating plans.
But the criticism leaves weeks after the announcement of the plans not after. “For the vast majority of real estate, the GEG offers neither technology-open nor affordable solutions and thus leads to a financial overload for many private owners,” explained “Haus & Grund” President Kai Warnecke in a statement “BILD” Warnecke is now upping the ante again. Because the draft law mentions annual costs of around 9.157 billion euros. Ab 2029 should fall to 5.039 billion euros annually.
Numbers from the owners’ association: What costs we could face
Warnecke: “The numbers in the bill are a milkmaid calculation.” The president of the owners’ association comes up with a lot more money in his calculations. “The goal is 500,000 new heat pumps per year. With costs averaging EUR 40,000 per heat pump, annual costs amount to 20 billion Euro. There is a government subsidy for heat pumps of up to 40 percent.” However, this is financed by the taxpayer. Possible new subsidies for heating replacement would also burden the tax authorities.
| designation of the grant | Percent grant |
|
Basic subsidy (“basic subsidy”) |
25 |
|
Heating exchange bonus |
10 |
|
Heat pump bonus |
5 |
|
Sum of all government grants |
40 |
In addition, according to Warnecke, there is another problem in the calculation by the Ministry of Economic Affairs. Because by 2045, all oil and gas heating systems are to be completely banned. In combination with the exchange obligation Germany should then be free of gas and oil heating from 2045. But there’s a catch here: time. Warnecke to “BILD”: “With 500,000 heat pumps per year, all residential buildings would only be equipped with a heat pump after around 39 years.”
Gas and oil heating ban until 2045 – so many heat pumps would have to be reinstalled
Even 500,000 heat pumps per year is a daunting task. For comparison: According to the Federal Association of the German Heating Industry (BDH), 2022 was a record year with 236,000 heat pumps. BDH President Jan Brockmann: “German manufacturers are investing massively in expanding production capacities.” The Federal Association of Heat Pumps says: “The target brand of 500,000 devices is ambitious – but achievable.” But even the experts are not sure.
The costs and now also the schedule – the plans for a ban on gas and oil heating are wobbly in implementation. In addition, gas heating could come to an end as early as 2035 – ten years earlier than planned in the draft law. Because the gas networks in Germany are not designed for H2 gas mixtures. The future of gas heating using biomethane is also shaky – keyword production capacity. Traffic light’s plans for a ban on gas and oil heating are revealing more and more weaknesses.
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