The parallel currency trades with a rise of 14 pesos in just 24 hours. Some caves stop operating and for analysts, the blue “is cheap”
By iProfessional
18/04/2023 – 17,02hs
The tension deepens in the exchange market. He Dolar blue It came to trade this Tuesday with an increase of fourteen pesos and scored a new all-time high of $422 in the caves of downtown Buenos Aires. Then it went down and sold to $418. For their part, financial dollars operate with a marked upward trend, registering new records.
In this context, specialists say that the parallel currency is “cheap”. City analysts told iProfessional that investors know that both the blue and the financial ones have a significant exchange rate delay, therefore, given the lack of dollars from the Central Bank due to the drought, they seek coverage by pushing up all the exchange market prices.
“By chart, the next objective of the blue is to go looking for $425. We will wait for the decision of the BCRAas to whether or not the interest rate is going to rise next Thursday, to try to stop the upward escalation that is observed in the exchange market,” analyzed a Head of Research from an important Buenos Aires economic consultancy.
Blue dollar: how much it should be worth, according to the guru of the City
Another of the finance experts who agrees and anticipates this trend is the “City guru”, Salvador Di Stefano, who assures that the free dollar should be worth around 460 pesos today.
“As long as inflation continues to spiral, it is impossible for them to continue repressing the MEP and CCL dollar prices that are above $400, and today they should be trading around $460. Taking 70% annual surety in pesos to buy dollarized instruments could be a good deal,” he said in his iProfessional column.
In this framework, it clarifies that if the Government does not stop inflation, and does not raise the fixed-term interest rate, there will be a migration of investments in pesos to dollars that it will not be able to stop.
For Di Stefano, the blue dollar should be worth about 42 pesos more than it is today.
The negative perspectives in the electoral field push investors to dollarize and wait for the PASO elections on August 13 sitting on hard currency.
In this context, the price of alternative dollars has no ceilingon Sunday we had the first provincial elections and the polls are beginning to indicate a change of government without a clear winner.
The blue dollar sets a new nominal record
Blue is always in the news except when it goes down, which rarely happens, but when it goes up it is in all the media and social networks, usually with great display. This is the case of what is happening these days, since so far this month it has been showing a rise of the order of 6%, to be located above 418 pesos.
Although this price is the highest in history, it must be taken into account that in a context like the current one, referring to prices in nominal terms loses its importance, given the relentless advance of inflation.
It is because of that it is much more realistic to compare the current price against the prices of previous months duly adjusted by the consumer price index. If this simple exercise is carried out, the conclusions obtained are the following:
- Taking the period from April 2020 to the present, only in three months was the price at each end of the month lower than the current one. This circumstance occurred in April and May 2022, when its average price was $390, and in October of the same year, when it was around 406 pesos.
- Throughout that period, the the average price of the blue was $460that is, about $30 higher than the current one, which implies that it is 10% below.
