Despite the launch of the “soybean dollar 2” that helped by giving the Central Bank to add reserves and meet the IMF goal, the year 2023 began with a rebound in the prices of parallel dollars, especially the Dolar bluewhich remains close to its record value.
In this context of new tensions in the market and with a BCRA that must spend the summer now without the help of farm currencies, uncertainty looms and many Argentines wonder what will happen in the coming months with the price of the dollar and inflation.
Within the framework of the unstable economic situation and a prolonged internment in the Frente de Todos that wore down the figure of President Alberto Fernández, last year the US currency remained consistently an important variable. For example, last Friday, July 22, the informal bill marked a feverish peak of $350, to close that day at a value of $338. Since then, the blue has been on a seesaw that placed it this Friday, December 6, at a price of $354.
Meanwhile, the official dollar It is currently advancing in a slow micro devaluation compared to previous months. The wholesaler finished this Friday’s wheel at $179.25.
Dollar 2023: the new market forecast
An interesting and useful perspective on what is to come can be found in the REM survey of the Central Bankwhich concentrates new forecasts on what What will happen to the price of the US ticket? at the end of the year and in 2023. The monetary authority published this Friday the results of the monthly survey it carries out among consultants and analysts from the City. There, experts share their forecasts for the dollar priceinflation and GDP growth.
The financial market agents grouped in the Survey of Market Expectations (REM) estimated that the official wholesale exchange rate will reach the $328.32 per dollar at the end of December of 2023. This is a small increase from the previous REM forecast of $320.39. This indicates that the market remains expectant and does not believe that the accumulated reserves of the soybean dollar and the inflow of funds from international organizations will guarantee exchange peace, at least until the end of the year.
Evolution of REM forecasts. Price of the wholesale dollar projected for the end of December 2023.
In parallel, from the survey it appears that analysts foresee a price of the dollar of $626 to December 2024.
As noted above, the wholesale dollar closed this Friday at $179.25, so analysts consider that it has $149.07 left to climb until the end of the year.
Prices: what will happen to inflation
The REM participants also anticipated that the inflation of December 2022 amounted to 5.5%.
In addition, market analysts projected that retail inflation accumulated during 2022 a 95.5%a drop compared to 99% that they had estimated last month. Likewise, the inflation forecast for the year 2023 It is 98.4%.
How much will the economy grow, according to the REM
REM analysts forecast by 2023 a growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) around the 0.5%which implies a worsening of 0.3 percentage points compared to last month’s survey.
The Survey of Market Expectations (REM) consists of a systematic monitoring of the main short and medium-term macroeconomic forecasts that are usually made by specialized local and foreign analysts, on the evolution of selected variables of the Argentine economy that are compiled by the Central Bank.
Slowing down the economy: City experts forecast economic growth of 0.5% this year.
The expectations regarding retail prices, the interest rate, the nominal exchange rate, economic activity and the primary result of the non-financial national public sector are surveyed.
The latest report disseminates the results of the survey carried out between December 27 and 29.
The forecasts of 38 participants were considered, including 25 local and international consultants and research centers, and 13 financial entities from Argentina.
Price of the dollar in 2023: this anticipates FocusEconomics
In addition to the REM of the BCRA, another large survey highly regarded in the market is the one published monthly by FocusEconomics, the latest edition of which was released in mid-September.
In this case, some 40 national and foreign economists make their monthly forecasts about what will happen to the dollar in the coming months.
The consensus of the analysts’ considerations is that the price of the US bill that is negotiated between banks will reach $338 at the end of December of next year, which is equivalent to 20 pesos more than what was forecast in the previous report (November)..
Therefore, if the wholesale dollar were to reach this value, based on exchange rate estimates for the last day of 2022, the expected devaluation for all of 2023 would reach 96.5%.
The consensus of economists for the price of the dollar is that it will reach $338 by the end of next year.
A percentage similar to inflation projections (95.5%) for the whole of next year.
“The peso should depreciate further next year, weighed down by continued money printing and high inflation,” the experts at FocusEconomics summarize.
In turn, the price projected by international analysts for the official wholesale dollar for a year from now ($338) is much higher than the price set out in the 2023 Budget presented in the National Congress by the Minister of Economy Sergio Massa, where he maintains that the exchange rate for the end of next year will be $270.
by the side of Matba-Rofex futures and options market is operating a very similar wholesale dollar price for the end of November 2023, which is the last established period in which these contracts can be made, of $331. In other words, barely 8 pesos less than the consensus of economists in the FocusEconomics survey for December of next year.
Price of the dollar: projections of economists
When analyzing the specific estimates of local and foreign economists from banks and consultancies for the wholesale exchange rate, a huge dispersion in prices since they start from $244 to $496 per dollar by the end of 2023.
The justification for this variation is based on the political and economic uncertainty that exists for the coming months in Argentina due to the presidential elections and a scenario of foreign currency scarcity at the Central Bank.
Specific, the highest price for the official wholesale dollar that experts expect by the end of 2023, is headed by the consultancy C&T Asesores, with a forecast of $496. Then there are Eco Go ($474), and Aurum Valores, with $450.
“The exchange outlook looks complicated for 2023: the gap remains very high, the real exchange rate will accumulate a delay of close to 12% by the end of this year and the drought threatens the income of dollars. All of this implies that the task of accumulating reserves will be extremely challenging, and the Central Bank cannot afford to further delay the exchange rate,” he summarizes to iProfessional Isaiah Marinian economist at Econviews, a consultancy who expects $376 by the end of next year.
As a result of this, this expert concludes: “In this framework, we expect the current rate of devaluation to continue in 2023 and that close the year on a par with inflation, which we project at 110%”.
For his part, Claudio Caprarulochief economist at Analytica Consultores, a firm that expects $336 for 12 months from now, indicates: “We project a average annual inflation of 100% for the next year, similar to the end of 2022. Along these lines, the exchange rate will continue to rise at a rate just below it.”
In this sense, it considers that this baseline scenario is “optimistic as long as the economy does not again suffer any external shock event, such as the one in March, or the dynamics of our economy that occurred last July.”
