In the first quarter of the year, the collection of the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) on gasoline and diesel stood at 29,841 million pesos, an annual increase of 33.6% in real terms, according to the Report on the Situation Economic, Public Finance and Public Debt of the Ministry of Finance.
First-quarter growth broke a trend of two consecutive annual contractions and is the largest increase since 72% in the same period of 2019.
The collection of the IEPS on gasoline is directly linked to the international price of fuels. In other words, if the price of hydrocarbons increases, the fiscal stimulus applied by the government also increases.
That said, the Treasury explained that “although the lower oil prices had a negative impact on oil revenues, they also favored an increase in the IEPS collection of fuels derived from the gradual decrease in price stimuli.”
Information from the Ministry of Finance details that the average for the first quarter in the stimulus for Magna gasoline went from 3.9 in 2022 to 2.8 pesos in 2023; the incentive to Premium from 2.1 to 1.2 pesos; and diesel from 3.5 to 4.8 pesos.
While oil revenues registered 255.200 million pesos between January-March. This meant an annual contraction of 18.3% in real terms, according to the SHCP.
Janet Quiroz, deputy director of economic analysis at Monex, commented to this space that the reduction in fuel prices is a consequence of fears of a possible recession in the United States and increases in the reference rate of the Federal Reserve.
“Given the increases in the interest rate, the markets discount the probability of a recession occurring, which would lead to a lower demand for energy,” said the analyst.
below expectations
Despite the annual increase of more than 33% in the IEPS collection for gasoline, the amount did not meet the SHCP’s schedule, since there was a shortage of 14.284 million pesos.
The IEPS on gasoline and diesel is the one that has the most weight in the total collection of said tax. Between January-March it contributed 33% of the 90.869 million pesos registered by IEPS.
The data from the Ministry of Finance also reports that the collection of the IEPS on gasoline added five months with positive numbers.
In March, the IEPS collection for gasoline reported 13,909 million pesos, which contrasts with the 1,928 million pesos obtained a year earlier.
