Are the days of passing laws without changing a point or a comma over? It seems so, when we see what is happening with the Aviation and Mining initiatives. There is a new ritual or, if you prefer, a new choreography. A very radical first version puts an industry on guard and/or in a paranoid mode. This first version serves to place the topic in the showcase of public discussion. It also serves for the president to install his narrative of rupture or contrast with the neoliberal past and puts those who want to criticize the initiative against the wall. When everything indicates that it will be all or nothing, black vs. white, a second version appears on the scene, where many of the thorns are removed. This one is more moderate, but with the lopezobradorista seal well placed. Yes indeed.
In the aviation law, cabotage that would have dealt a blow to the surviving Mexican airlines such as Volaris, Aeroméxico and Viva Aerobús was left out. Air cabotage would allow foreign airlines to “complement” their international trips with national routes, a market that until now is reserved for nationals. In the short term, prices would fall drastically. They would eventually kill off the national airlines, which are much smaller than the US airlines. If we add up all the planes that Mexican flag carriers have, they are not even half of what a United States airline has, such as United, Delta or American. The chamber of the airline industry and the industry unions warned about the risks and the unusualness of the initiative: in Latin America, only Peru dared to do so and in the end it was left without “national” airlines.
Regarding aviation, Congress received proposals for changes to two laws. Civil aviation and airports. In them, one of the projects that have obsessed the president in recent times takes legislative form: turning the Army into the protagonist of the skies. The proposal ignores the opinions of the Federal Economic Competition Commission and makes changes so that one actor can own an airline and control an airport group. This removes an obstacle for the participation of the Armed Forces as a relevant player in the operation of commercial aviation and airport infrastructure.
It is expected that by the end of 2023 the Army airline will be operating. The Armed Forces administer the AIFA, in addition to the airports of Tulum, Chetumal, Palenque and Campeche. The Navy would also have its airport group (Casiopea), where the jewel in the crown would be the Mexico City airport. Eventually, this could mean a conflict of interest, for example, if the airport administrator gives advantages to the airline of which he is a partner.
The proposed legislative changes in aviation and airports reflect the concern to recover Category 1, in the evaluations made by the United States federal civil aviation authority. This category was lost in May 2021 and has hit the Mexican airline industry. Airlines cannot open new routes to the United States. This is one of the many reasons why the Felipe Ángeles International Airport cannot take off.
To recover Category 1, the initiative proposes granting more powers to the Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC), in tasks such as verification and operational safety; regulatory investigation of accidents and incidents; creation of an aviation medicine area to evaluate aeronautical technical personnel. The proposed Law updates and harmonizes the technical characteristics of airports based on the international regulation of Civil Aviation. It provides for the preparation of a master development program and an indicative investment program to guarantee the operational quality of airports.
Will this be enough to regain Category 1? No, if there is no upward revision of the budget. It must be remembered that AFAC’s operating expenses went from 160 million in 2015 to 26 million in 2021. In 2022 and 2023 there has been a recovery, but it is still below the level it was a decade ago. Additionally, 90% of the agency’s budget goes to payroll. Last but not least: in this recategorization, the last word belongs to the United States. What signal will our neighbor send?
