The inflation projection for all of 2023, according to the Survey of Market Expectations (REM), released this Friday by the Central Bank, is 126.4% year-on-year (yoy). Following the run on the parallel dollar in April, analysts updated the CPI yoy by 16.4 percentage points (pp) above the forecast made in last month’s survey.
Analysts estimated inflation of 126.4% for 2023. 16.4% above the forecast of the previous survey.
Regarding the Core CPI, analysts projected a monthly variation of 7.5% for April, 1.2 pp above the previous forecast, although higher than the forecast of those who best projected this variable for the short term, who placed it at 7 .4% monthly.
The REM projects a CPI of 7.5% for April 2023, 1.2% above the calculation made in March, which was 6.3%.
Meanwhile, core inflation for 2023 was estimated at 127% yoy, 17.2 pp more than the previous survey, and for 2024, at 106.0% yoy (11.8 pp above the March survey).
Dollar
In this sense, the REM analysts corrected their projections of the wholesale exchange rate, which they located at an average of $232.30 per dollar by the end of May (7.26% expected monthly variation). In addition, by the end of the year, analysts expect the exchange rate to reach $398.50 in December 2023, with which it would have an increase of 130.5% yoy
GDP
Regarding the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), analysts participating in the REM expect it to fall 3.1% by 2023, which implies a 0.4 pp drop compared to that projected in the previous REM. And for 2024 they estimate an average annual contraction of 0.2%, that is, a change in GDP 0.5 pp less than that forecast in March.
