With the results of Monday’s voting, it is expected that the retirement of the next candidate will be defined, who could be the governor of Florida, analysts estimate.
While much of the attention has recently focused on the second-place race and whether Haley will finish ahead of the Florida governor, former President Trump’s campaign hopes to achieve the kind of victory that will weaken his rivals’ momentum by moment when he tries to secure the nomination and advance to the general election.
The latest poll by the Des Moines Register and NBC News before the caucuses showed Trump with a formidable lead, with the support of almost half of likely caucus attendees, compared to 20% for Haley and 16% for DeSantis. Haley and DeSantis remain locked in a tight fight for second place.
The verdict will be known on Monday starting at 7:00 p.m. local time (01:00 GMT on Tuesday), when Iowa voters meet in schools, libraries and fire stations in this agricultural state to designate their candidate.
“Tomorrow (Monday) we will win the first primaries in the country,” said Donald Trump at a rally in Indianola, in the center of the state.
The former president, indicted four times in court, will now face the trial of the voters for the first time since he left the White House.
Despite his judicial problems, he has, according to polls, one of the biggest advantages in history over his Republican rivals.
“Challenge the climate”
“Burn up tomorrow,” Trump advised his supporters. “Defy the weather and save America.”
Iowans could have to deal with an unexpected event: the most intense cold in recent memory during a presidential campaign in the state, with temperatures that can reach -32º Celsius, snow and icy roads.
Sure of their victory, will Trump’s voters go to vote under these conditions?
“I’ll do it if my car wants to leave the garage!” exclaims Jeff Nikolas, 37, laughing.
For this trucker, only Trump is capable of “ending all the stupidity happening in the world right now.”
“Four years of chaos”
Five candidates oppose Trump. Among them, only two seem to have options.
On the one hand, Nikki Haley, the only woman in the running, highly appreciated in the business sector.
“You don’t fight Democratic chaos with Republican chaos,” Haley said on Fox News on Sunday. “We will not survive four more years of chaos. That is why we must consign (Democratic President Joe) Biden and Trump to the past and look to the future,” she said.
On the other hand, the governor of Florida, a conservative with tough positions on immigration and abortion.
This former Navy officer bet all his chips on Iowa, and visited all 99 counties in the state in recent months.
“He has a good sense of leadership,” says Ben Rummelhart, 33, who considers Donald Trump “vulnerable” because of “all his judicial problems.”
DeSantis insisted Sunday that his “very motivated” supporters will turn out in droves to support him in Iowa despite the weather.
“Bring friends and family, that will have a strong impact” on the outcome, DeSantis told ABC.
Latest polls
Trump would come out on top in Iowa, with 48% approval, ahead of Haley, with 20%, and Ron DeSantis, with 16%, according to a poll by the Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom published on Saturday.
But observers do not rule out that one of Trump’s two main contenders may surprise and take part of the millionaire’s enormous lead.
If Trump does not obtain the overwhelming victory that the polls predict in Iowa, he runs the risk of appearing weaker for the rest of the primaries.
Starting next week, candidates will compete in New Hampshire, then Nevada and South Carolina in February.
One after another, the 50 states of the Union will vote until June to proclaim, in July, the Republican presidential candidate during their party’s national convention.
For Trump, 77, the priority is to ensure victory before his trials begin, some scheduled for March.
Voting day, the coldest
After several days of storms, Monday was expected to be the coldest day of any caucus day in history, with temperatures below -17 degrees Celsius (0 degrees Fahrenheit) at the time Republicans were expected to attend. to the assembly places.
Advisers to several campaigns and veteran experts in Iowa politics have noted that the weather could greatly reduce turnout. The Republican caucuses reached their highest turnout with more than 180,000 people in 2016, Trump’s first campaign. Texas Senator Ted Cruz narrowly won that year. The Trump campaign has put considerably more effort this time into its structure in the state.
Source: With information from AFP and EDITORIAL
