The gold is showing signs of returning to what it was since it is gaining ground again among the options selected by investors, after having left behind the minimum prices registered last November. It is that in the last two months the metal has climbed around 14% in its price, and arouses the attention of stock market analysts.
“Several analysts project ambitious trajectories for the metal in 2023. Of course, this is the product of different estimates of inflation, level of economic activity and, of course, monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Therefore, it is important to understand what conditions must be met for it to be an interesting alternative to incorporate into a portfolio”, details Maximiliano DonzelliHead of Research at IOL investoronline.
In this regard, this analyst considers that the Gold prices can “at least hold at these levels, backed by the recession and the likelihood of being somewhere near the Fed’s interest rate peak, a weaker dollar outlook and a slowing inflation path. All these factors can constitute a floor for its price”.
In this regard, Donzelli considers that a large part of the prospects for 2023 of world markets will depend on the path of monetary policyand that the central banks begin to reduce the interest rate hikes that began last year.
“However, we must highlight that the rate cuts for 2023 will depend, to a large extent, on the inflation rate, since, if it does not continue to converge to the target levels, it will be difficult to imagine a year of less aggressive monetary policies”, he affirms.
Therefore, In order to see a positive impact on gold prices, experts say that they will need as a condition “a turn to a more moderate monetary policy” by central banks.
The price of gold, after hitting a low in November, has since risen more than 14%.
gold attention
The dynamics that the gold had two central periodswhich were during the corrections experienced by the market in both 2001 and 2008.
Is that in 2001 gold reached minimums of US$256, showing a year later, in April 2002, a rise of almost 20%, reaching a value of more than US$300.
While, between November 2008, which was when the metal reached a minimum of US$708, until February 2009, gold registered an increase in its value of more than 40%, reaching intraday levels of US$1,000.
“It is necessary to clarify that, beyond the statistical data of the dynamics that gold took during the two most recent market falls, we once again emphasize that For a stage of sustained rise to be repeated again, the aforementioned conditions must be met previously. Monetary policy should start to be moderate, which will generate a weakening of the dollar,” warns Donzelli.
How to invest in gold
According to this expert, the simplest and most direct way to invest in gold for those savers who have an account in the United States is to buy GLD ETFs (SPDR Gold Shares), which is the largest gold exchange-traded fund in the world, with US$54 billion of assets under management.
“One of the main characteristics and differences that this ETF has in relation to other commodity funds, is that the GLD has stored gold bars as its underlying asset in vaults, and not gold futures,” Donzelli points out.
The gold equivalent can be bought through different papers, such as ETFs and Cedears from companies in the sector.
It should be remembered that the Equity Trade Funds (ETFs) They are investment funds that have the particularity of being listed on the Stock Exchange. Its operation is the same as that of shares, that is, they can be bought and sold throughout a wheel at the existing price at all times.
“Another of the alternatives to position yourself in gold, although it is more indirect, is to invest in mining companies. Among the prominent ones are Barrick Gold (GOLD), Harmony Gold Mining Company (HMY) Y Yamana Gold (AUY). All three can be operated in the US market, as well as in the local market through the respective Cedears,” Donzelli notes.
The Argentine Certificates of Deposit (Cedears) They are financial assets with local operations, which represent ordinary shares of the most important companies in the world that are listed abroad and that can be bought in pesos in a simple way.-
