L’effetto del tasso BCE sull’economia europea-proiezionidiborsa.it
The monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) has had a significant impact on the Eurozone economy, initially poiché influence i tassi di intereste di prestiti e depositi shortly ends in the interbank market. In this article, we will explore how the ECB rate influences its European economy and how many critics are critical of what might lead to a recession. Andiamo to study the effect of the ECB rate on the European economy.
L’effetto sulla valuta
Il tasso di intereste deciso dalla BCE ha anche an impacto sulla forza dell’euro rispetto alle altre value. thing happense il tasso di interesse è più alto rispetto alle altre value? L’euro diventa più forte e ciò potrebbe portare a una riduzione delle esportazioni, poiché i prodotti europei diventano più costosi per i mercati esteri. On the contrary, se il tasso di interesse è più basso rispetto alle altre value. In this case, the euro is diventa più debole and ciò potrebbe portare an increase delle exportazioni, poiché i prodotti europei diventano più competitivi sui mercati esteri.
The flag criticizes the ECB rate
L’effetto del tasso BCE sull’economia europea: what is it? Ci sono diverse soglie critiche che potrebbero portare a una recessione en Europa. In general, if the rate of interest is too high, print it and the family may find it difficult to obtain high-quality accessibili. This leads to a reduction of the aggregate demand and of the general economic activity. Inoltre, a rate of interest is high enough that I can carry an apprezzamento della valuta e ad una riduzione delle esportazioni.
On the contrary, a rate of interest troppo basso potrebbe portare a sovraesposizione al rischio di credito da parte delle banche, poiché i margini di intereste diventano troppo ridotti. Inoltre, a rate of interest is low enough to lead to a depreciation of the value and to an increase in imports, reducing the general economic activity.
On the basis of some macroeconomic formula, The rate applied to the ECB so that the probability of a recession in Europe is 2.5%. This value is estimated considering the relationship between the interest rate and economic growth. When the rate is too high, the investment becomes less convenient and helps reduce production, leading to a decrease in growth and an increase in disoccupation.
Individuazione della soglia critica
To add to a quantification of a critical trend, for which the economy is in a recessive phase, we could use the empirical rule of the “Taylor equilibrium”. This rule suggests that the rate of interest in equilibrium for a dovrebbe economy will be equal to the rate of natural growth of the economy with a prize for the inflationary risk.
In formula, we can write:
Equilibrium Interest Rate = Natural Growth Rate + Inflationary Risk Award.
The rate of natural growth is the rate of growth of the economy when inflation is stable and the rate of real interest is the natural live parrot. Secondly, by the ECB, the natural growth rate of the Eurozone is currently 1.5%.
The effect of the ECB tax on the European economy: i valori da monitorare
The prize for the inflationary risk counts for the increase in inflation when the economy reaches the maximum productive capacity. Second tally fonti, always based on the valuations of the BCE, the price for the inflationary risk is currently around 0.9%.
Quindi, the rate of interest in equilibrium for the eurozone, according to the empirical rule of Taylor’s equilibrium, is given by:
Equilibrium interest rate = 1.5% + 0.9% = 2.4%
What does this mean? an interest rate higher than 2.4% could be seen as a sign of restrictive monetary policy, che Potrebbe portare ad una recessione. Tuttavia, i tassi di interesse di equilibrio possono variare nel tempo e sono soggetti a incertezze e difficoltà di misurazione. Quindi that this empirical rule is intense as an approximate guide and not as a rigid rule.
But, based on all’attuale rate of difference of 3.75%, it is probable a stagnant phase at least. Also, we will consider the particular situation macro in cui ci troviamo, in part legata a fattori non ciclici dell’economia, like the Ukrainian conflict. Such elements could cause criticism in the statistical validity of some forms. E quindi anche il risultato ottenuto mathematicamente va poi validato con osservazioni basate sull’andamento reale dei fattori macroeconomici.
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