Thais began voting this Sunday, May 14, in the first legislative elections since the pro-democracy protests of 2020, against a backdrop of rejection of the pro-army conservative government, given the loser in the polls against the progressive opposition.
Analysts anticipate a high participation rate, which echoes the change desired by part of the population, in a context of sluggish growth and the decline of fundamental freedoms.
The sequel after the ad
The main opposition party, Pheu Thai, led by the daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, hopes to turn the page on a near-decade of domination by the military and its allies, embodied by incumbent prime minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha (69 years old).
But the complex electoral system offers the candidate close to the military a comfortable lead, which could attenuate the extent of the expected alternation, or even open a new period of instability.
A scenario that would allow the military to stay in power also remains possible, in a kingdom accustomed to the interventions of the army and justice in the democratic process.
The main candidates went to the polls in the capital Bangkok in the morning, after the opening of the polls at 8:00 a.m. (3 a.m. in metropolitan France).
The sequel after the ad
Ex-General Prayut called on voters to turn out en masse, saying he hoped for a “participation rate as high as possible”.
An unbalanced system in favor of the army
Came to power following a coup in 2014 and then legitimized in 2019 by controversial legislative elections, the leader approaches the ballot in a weak position, facing the pro-democracy camp led by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36, the favorite voting under the red banner of Pheu Thai. She campaigned on the theme of the “electoral tidal wave”, made essential to gain power.
The movement associated with his wealthy family needs 376 seats, out of the 500 in the National Assembly, to counterbalance the influence of the 250 senators appointed by the army.
While it is enough for the pro-army camp of 126 deputies to ensure a majority in the vote of the Prime Minister, chosen by the two chambers.
The sequel after the ad
Star candidate Paetongtarn Shinawatra capitalizes on the popularity of his father Thaksin Shinawatra, Prime Minister from 2001 to 2006, who lives in exile to escape a conviction for corruption.
The charismatic figure of Thaksin, a billionaire idolized by rural communities in the North and Northeast who benefited from his pioneering social policies, has polarized Thai political life for more than 20 years, between his supporters (“the Reds”) and his army-aligned conservative opponents (“the Yellows”).
Thaksin, like Yingluck Shinawatra, Paetongtarn’s aunt, were ousted from power in a military coup in 2006 and 2014 respectively.
Sunday’s poll is the first nationwide to be held since massive pro-democracy protests in 2020, which called for a sweeping overhaul of the monarchy, a taboo subject in Thailand where King Maha Vajiralongkorn enjoys status of quasi-divinity.
The sequel after the ad
A party that wants to reform lèse-majesté
These protests, which have diminished in intensity under the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic and the repression of the authorities, have nevertheless fueled the dynamism of Move Forward (“Going forward”), the other great force of the opposition.
The party, self-proclaimed spokesperson for the new generation, defends a reform of the controversial article repressing lèse-majesté, hijacked to stifle any dissenting voice, according to its detractors.
Rama X, a megalomaniac king for Thailand
Its leader, the telegenic Pita Limjaroenrat (42), passed by Harvard, expects a participation “historical”he said when voting. “The younger generations now value their rights and they will go out to vote”assured the candidate.
But his positions deemed radical fuel rumors of the party’s dissolution after the election, as was his ancestor Future Forward (“Forward to the future”) after his breakthrough in 2019.
The sequel after the ad
Under the banner of the United Thai Nation (UTN) party, Prayut Chan-O-Cha wants to be the bulwark against reformist ideas and boasts of his experience, a guarantee of stability.
“I have high hopes because there is strong competition between many talented candidates, compared to elections in the past”estimated a voter in the capital, Pakorn Adulpan, 85 years old.
