The Economist Carlos Melconian He referred to the financial present, with an upward trend for the dollar, in a year marked by the political expectations of the presidential elections.
“This is a year of the short blanket, something after August, after October, it will happen. The drought hits not only for the dollars, but also in the collection for $1.5 million, also in prices and also in activity. Anything that means ‘forward’ complicates after August, be disembodied from the IMF or the soybean dollar. Every time you do something from 2024, you complicate the next government, ”said the economist, in dialogue with radio miter.
“They are underestimating the conflict and we are entering a new stage of inflationary character and turbulence of the plane. This is getting complicated both politically and economically speaking,” Melconian pointed out. “The government is devaluing and the probability that it will have to make a currency jump has increased. Guard: the contexts where there is an exchange rate jump have to be accompanied by something that makes them feel that they maintain control of what they have done, ”she warned.
“I think of three scenarios: the Hyper, the Rodrigazo and another is very similar to when the Austral Plan began to deteriorate, which I see as more likely”
“For a devaluation jump it is necessary to see if they recompose the political power. Giving up being a candidate is not giving up governing and deciding to be a candidate is not giving up being a minister. Continue with the fiscal nominality with which you are, public spending continues to rise, but as inflation liquefies it, the political and economic scenario has become more complicated. Yeah the possibility of an exchange rate jump has increased official. Everything ran a little”, defined he is president of Banco Nación.
“I am thinking of three scenarios, one is the Híper, another is the Rodrigazo and another is very similar to when the Southern Plan. You will feel more pleasant the third. The departure of the Austral Plan is something that goes from 1985 until the appearance of the Spring Plan, which was an electoral response to the deterioration, which begins to generate an additional jump in the inflation rate because you need not to delay the change and liquefy due to inflation. Now what was 5% you are at 7% and peak and you are close to double digits. By probability I see an additional deterioration like the post Austral”, anticipated Melconian.
“There was a model that was the Fabregazo of 2014, for the purpose of reaping the fruits of three or four months before the election. The whole idea was what is the last moment to launch a little program that makes you spit blood for two or three months, but before the election helps you win the election. The last date to release something like this was January or December: that eats you up until March and you get to show something for the August election. ex postthey made the decision not to do it ”, he considered.
“There isn’t much to invent, then came that fog that confused them, that’s where the big one came to announce 3% inflation for April and the drought hit. It is not a good government that was caught by the drought, it is a bad government with malpractice that was caught by the drought. If the government does not define anything, this ordeal will continue until October,” said Melconian.
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