In 2022, of the six states with the greatest weight in the national economy, Veracruz and Mexico City were the only ones whose economic activity remained below pre-pandemic levels, BBVA Mexico projected based on estimates based on the Indicator Quarterly of the State Economic Activity (ITAEE).
In his Regional Sectorial Situation report, he explained that during the past year the subnational structure did not show considerable changes in economic terms; the concentration of 50% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product remained in the same six entities as in recent years.
Despite the fact that the distribution was maintained, in 2022 the economy of the country’s capital closed 5% below the level observed in 2019.
There are different factors that caused the city to not fully recover, such as the performance of the financial sector and the structural change in business support services; also that the effects of the outsourcing reform suffered until the first half of 2022.
Another reason was due to the fact that formal employment levels presented a 98.6% recovery compared to 2019, that is, there are still a lack of jobs.
“Mexico City is the entity with the greatest contribution to formal employment, averaging 16% of the national and closed with a positive variation of 3.1%, recovering from falls of -4.3% and -1.7% in 2020 and 2021”, is read in the document.
BBVA estimated that by 2023 a negative effect for the city in terms of economic recovery will continue marginally.
Meanwhile, one of the factors that undermined Veracruz’s recovery was the weakness of its primary sector, since it closed with a negative rate. The impact of droughts on the agricultural sector stands out, and as an additional situation, the vulnerability of its industrial sector and lack of investment attraction.
Perspective
Within BBVA’s perspective, by the end of 2022, there are 15 entities that exceeded their pre-pandemic levels in economic activity compared to 2019, while another eight are above 97% recovery.
Public investment in energy matters keeps Tabasco as the leader in recovery (15% above its pre-pandemic levels), followed by Baja California and Chiapas, driven by the reactivation of the tourism sector.
Quintana Roo and Baja California Sur would have grown at a rate of 9.7% and 10.2%, respectively, due to the rebound in tourism services and domestic commerce, particularly during the second half of the year.
Other advances are recorded in the State of Mexico, Chihuahua and Zacatecas, due to the good performance of the export manufacturing sector.
“In the northern region and Bajío, the states with an export manufacturing profile close 2022 at positive rates ranging from 5% in Coahuila to 2.8% in Guanajuato. By 2023 they will grow at a higher rate than the national one derived from the chain of manufacturing to transportation and marketing.”
